629
FXUS63 KSGF 111021
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
521 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable conditions will continue today and
  tonight.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) return
  Sunday afternoon and evening then become widespread late
  Sunday night into Monday. Continued chances (20-60%) linger
  into Tuesday, particularly east of Springfield.

- Additional shower and storm chances (30-60%) will be possible
  late in the week as another system moves through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An upper level trough is currently moving southeast into the
Great Lakes region early this morning. The trough will continue
to move to the southeast today as an upper level trough builds
east into the Plains. An upper level northwest flow pattern will
occur across the area today keeping dry conditions across the
area. Surface high pressure will move east towards the area
today with light northwesterly winds occurring this afternoon.
Light and variable winds develop tonight as the area of surface
high pressure moves across the region. Highs today will warm
into the middle to upper 70s with lows in cooling into the upper
40s to middle 50s tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The upper level ridge will move east over the region on Sunday.
A warm front will lift northeast through the area and some weak
uncapped elevated instability will develop across the area
Sunday afternoon and evening. Some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening
but overall coverage should remain limited as a drier air mass
in the mid levels will be in place. Therefore, many locations
will remain dry through Sunday evening.

The ensemble model members continue to indicate an upper level
low moving across the central Plains on Sunday night into Monday
morning and across the region Monday into Tuesday morning.
As the upper level low moves east moisture and lift will
increase across the region. As a result showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri Sunday night and will
spread across the entire area on Monday. As the low moves off
to the east the coverage in shower and storms will decrease from
west to east later Monday into Tuesday but some showers and
storms will linger into Tuesday afternoon at times especially
east of Highway 65. The better instability and severe risk are
still expected to remain south of the region on Monday. The
better moisture will also remain south of the region, and limit
the overall widespread excessive rain risk across the area.
Still some localized minor flooding may be possible on Monday
given recent rains and the slow movement of this system.

An upper level ridge will move east over the region on Wednesday
and overall most locations should remain dry. The ensemble
model members continue to differ late in the week with the
track, structure, and timing of another upper level trough.
Additional shower and storm chances will be possible Thursday
into Friday but confidence on any one solutions and details such
as timing, shear, instability, and moisture return still remain
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the area Today and tonight as
surface high pressure moves through the region. Light
southwesterly winds will occur early this morning and will
become northwesterly later this morning into this afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable this evening into tonight as
the surface high moves over the region. Southeasterly winds will
develop early Sunday morning as the high starts to move off to
the east. High level clouds will also start to increase across
the area tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise