Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KSGF 282250
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions into early this evening and
  again Friday afternoon.

- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts of 40-50
  mph along and west of an Osceola to Cassville line. Gusts of
  30-40 mph elsewhere across the Missouri Ozarks.

- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong
  to possibly severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synoptic Scale Pattern and Current Conditions:

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper level trough progressing east
across the Appalachian states with an upper level ridge across the
northern and central Plains. This puts the Missouri Ozarks region in
a northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a sprawling area of high
pressure is slowly sliding southeast across the Ohio and Lower
Mississippi Valleys. We have seen a return to light southwesterly
surface winds behind that surface high.

While skies are largely clear across the area, we have seen some
smoke and haze from fires across northeastern Oklahoma and
southeastern Kansas. Temperatures are much milder today with most
areas in the upper 50s and lower 60s as of 2 PM.

Late this Afternoon and Tonight:

Pleasant conditions will persist with surface winds gradually
increasing and backing to southerly. The backing surface winds
should take most of the near-surface smoke northward across eastern
Kansas. However, the HRRR vertically integrated smoke product does
still advect smoke into area tonight, especially along and north of
the I-44 corridor. This is due to a strengthening southwesterly 850
mb jet stream. Thus, there will still be lingering haziness due
to the smoke.

The increasing surface winds will result in a fairly large
temperature gradient across the area tonight. Lows along and west of
the I-49 corridor will fall into the middle and upper 40s. In
contrast, the eastern Ozarks will see lows in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.

Friday:

That upper level ridge will quickly translate east into the Great
Lakes with a subtle short wave trough tracking east across the
northern and central Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low
will approach the California Coast with diffluent southwesterly
flow developing across the western U.S.

Surface pressure gradients will tighten up across the region as low
pressure develops across the central Plains and that surface high
pressure continues to depart to our southeast. Brisk south to
southwest surface winds will therefore develop Friday morning and
will persist into the afternoon.

Inspection of NBM and HREF probabilistic data reveals 60-80%
probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph roughly along and west
of an Osceola to Cassville line. Bufkit momentum transfer plots
support these probabilities with gusts to 45 mph. This is quite
attainable given that we will mix above 3000 feet AGL. We have
therefore issued a Wind Advisory for this area.

Temperatures will be mild on Friday as we continue to see warm
air advection in the lower and middle portions of the
atmosphere. Progged 850 mb temperatures warming into the 10-12
Celsius range suggest that high temperatures will reach the
lower to middle 70s. We do expect an increase in high clouds
throughout the day. If clouds are thinner than expected, a few
locations could make a run at the upper 70s.

Meanwhile, low level moisture will begin to increase as we begin to
see trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico. However, we
think that appreciable moisture increase will not occur on Friday,
especially across the eastern Ozarks. Friday therefore looks like
another day that will feature elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

That aforementioned short wave trough will drive a surface cold
front into the Ozarks from Friday night into Saturday morning. Short
range ensembles then show good agreement that the front will stall
Saturday afternoon and evening before beginning to lift north as a
warm front Saturday night.

While moisture will be somewhat limited ahead of the front, there
will be weak instability (MUCAPEs less than 500 J/kg) present from
later Friday night into Saturday morning. With short term ensembles
suggesting a low level jet nosing into the region, that may open the
door for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. We
have maintained 20-30% PoPs mainly up across central Missouri to
cover this potential scenario.

Additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then remain
possible (20-40% chance) from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night
as that front stalls and begins to lift back north. The "highest"
potential for precipitation will be north of Highway 60.

Sunday into Monday:

Global ensembles continue to depict that the upper level low will
dig down the California coast with a portion of the upper level low
splitting off and tracking east into the northern or central Rockies
on Sunday. This will effectively result in a large and positively
tilted long wave trough. Ensembles then gradually progress that
trough to the east on Monday with some notable timing differences.

At the surface, most ensemble scenarios develop a surface low across
the central High Plains during the day on Sunday with that low then
tracking east along that warm front Sunday night and Monday. Nearly
all ensemble solutions then indicate a cold front overtaking a dry
line and pushing through the Ozarks sometime later Monday or Monday
night.

The synoptic scale pattern along with forecast instability and shear
indicate the potential for severe storms across a large portion of
the central U.S., especially on Monday. SPC has outlooked this
general region with 15% probabilities. The CIPS and CSU Machine
Learning products indicate even higher potential for severe storms.

Additionally, both the ECMWF and NAEFS ensemble systems indicate
high amounts of moisture available to this system. That includes
precipitable water and integrated vapor transport values in the 90-
99th percentile of 30-year climatologies. This would be supportive
of heavy rainfall potential if this system is less progressive.

Interested parties should keep up with the forecast given the
potential hazards associated with this system.

Once this system clears the area, a return to cooler and drier
weather is on tap by the middle of next week as that trough pushes
across the central U.S. We will need to keep an eye on overnight low
temperatures as NBM statistical data indicates that a frost and/or
freeze could be in play.

Longer range ensembles and five wave charts then indicate upper
level ridging and a signal for above normal temperatures returning
in the April 5-11 time frame. Towards the tail end of that time
frame, five wave charts then begin to transition us to more of a
southwest flow. This would open the door for more active
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Expect south-southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots through
this evening, becoming predominately southerly overnight into
Friday morning. LLWS around 40 to 45 knots at all TAF sites on
Friday morning. Expect winds to increase through Friday morning
into the afternoon, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Some wind
gusts may exceed 35 knots at KJLN during the afternoon.
Additionally, high level cloud cover will be on the increase in
the later part of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

March 31:
KSGF: 62/1967

April 1:
KSGF: 62/1946


Record Precipitation:

April 1:
KVIH: 0.88/1945

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ066-067-077-
     078-088-089-093-094-101-102.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Schaumann


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.