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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191926
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
226 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A very diffuse frontal boundary continues to make very slow
progress across our southern zones attm with some very light rain
and/or drizzle continuing near the I-20 Corridor across N LA.
There will continue to be the possibility of an isolated
thunderstorm or two across our southern zones due to the
proximity of the boundary and diurnal heating but anything that
forms should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this
evening. Then all eyes turn out west as an upper level disturbance
moves out of the Four Corners Region and into the Texas Hill
Country during the day Saturday. Isentropic forcing in advance of
the upper forcing in association with the upper trough itself will
result in increasing convective coverage near and north of the
I-20 Corridor after midnight tonight.

Likewise, ascent from the upper trough will only increase during
the day Saturday and especially Saturday Night with arrival of the
upper trough with widespread accumulating rainfall totals near 1-3
inches with isolated higher amounts. These kind of rainfall
amounts will likely be much more impactful to our area lakes,
rivers and bayous given how swollen they have been from previous
rainfall. Hourly Flash Flood Guidance Values across our region are
near 3 inches per hour and we should be nowhere near these kind of
rainfall rates for this event. Therefore, will not go out with a
Flood Watch with this package. Instead, we will issue a
Hydrologic Outlook which highlights the likelihood of excessive
heavy rainfall and its impacts on our waterways. Stayed close to
NBM MOS guidance temps throughout the short term portion of the
forecast.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough is directly ovhd with precip ending from west to
east across our region during the day Sunday. We finally begin to
dry out to start the upcoming work week with northwest flow aloft
prevailing in the wake of the trough. Followed the NBM`s lead with
the introduction of small pops across portions of our region Tue
Night into Wed but this should not amount to much given upstream
ridging in place across the Southern Plains. That changes as we
move into the late next week and just beyond this 7-day forecast
package as upper flow quickly becomes southwesterly aloft with the
possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms somewhere in the
Friday/Saturday timeframe. Until then, look for steadily
modifying temperatures through the upcoming work week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Terminal forecast remains sloppy as hazardous flight conditions
will materialize across the airspace late tonight and through the
period tomorrow. This will include multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA
starting as early as 20/09z. Along with this, reduced VSBY across
the terminals is to be expected as a result of low CIGs and the
aforementioned precip hazards through the period. Restrictions
down to IFR, potentially even LIFR, is possible as a result of
heavy precip associated with any TSRA and heavier BR evolution.
Very little improvement is to be expected through this TAF period
and likely the next as this will hold the bulk of the weather
expected. Under any TSRA/SHRA, terminal winds will trend VRB, but
the trend is for winds to remain northeasterly, remaining on the
elevated side between 10-15 kts.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  62  50  65 /  50  80  90  20
MLU  56  62  49  63 /  40  70  90  40
DEQ  48  56  45  66 /  60  90  80   0
TXK  51  57  48  65 /  60  90  90  10
ELD  49  56  45  63 /  60  90  90  20
TYR  56  61  49  64 /  70  90 100  10
GGG  55  61  49  64 /  60  80 100  10
LFK  63  74  50  64 /  20  70  90  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53