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000
FXUS64 KSHV 170557
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Persistent SW flow aloft will maintain a steady supply of Pacific
moisture coupled with southerly LL flow from the Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, mostly cloudy to overcast skies will prevail overnight.
Within the slightly perturbed SW flow, some additional showers and
a stray thunderstorm will still be possible although chances have
generally decreased compared to earlier this evening. So for this
update, tapered back PoPs across our NE zones while introducing
slight chance PoPs south of I-20 to account for isolated showers
after midnight through daybreak. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is on track. All updated text products have been issued.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper trough across Southern/Central Plains will continue slowly lifting
out to the north and east overnight tonight. Across our region and
upstream, WSW flow aloft continues to dominate the Southern Plains
with weak upper level forcing noted across the Middle Red River
Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. Cold front in association with
this trough will move into NE OK and NC TX before stalling late
tonight and this frontal boundary is not forecast to even make it
into McCurtain County before pulling up stationary late tonight.
Instead, 850mb theta-e ridging across NE TX into far SE OK and SW
AR in advance of the sfc cold front will likely be the feature
that storms could develop on later this afternoon/evening with the
850mb cold front pushing south and east into N LA towards sunrise
Wed Morning. Given the lack of more significant upper forcing, did
back off likely NBM pops for tonight, characterizing them as more
scattered in nature vs likely storm coverage across our northwest
half. Low-end moderate instability will best describe the warm
sector in advance of the true cold front this evening with descent
lapse rates, suggesting that small hail cannot be ruled out of
any strong storms that form this evening but more organized severe
convection will likely remain north of our area through the
night.

The cold front will remain north of our region on Wed with this
feature returning back to the north as a warm front. Meanwhile,
we will have virtually no upper level ascent noted aloft and the
850mb boundary will have washed out across our region. All this to
say, pops look negligible for Wed thru Wed Night attm. Did not
stray far from NBM temps on Wed or Wed Night given that NBM temps
are on the warmer side of guidance and this seems plausible given
cloud cover will be plentiful and continued southerly winds.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper flow will be near zonal to begin the long term with
troughing noted across the far Northern Plains and Upper Great
Lakes. There will be a very weak shortwave along the southern
flank of the Plains trough that will migrate eastward from the
Southern Plains into the Tenn/Ohio Valley late Thu/Thu Night and
it`s this feature that will help to drag the previously mentioned
sfc cold front back our way Thu Evng. It appears that this
boundary will hang up once again near the I-30 Corridor of NE TX,
SE OK and SW AR Thu Night and may try to backdoor southward aross
SW AR and perhaps, portions of N LA during the day Friday. SPC
currently has a Day 3 Slight Risk near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor and this looks plausible given the orientation of the
frontal boundary Thu Aftn/Evng. Concerning pops, oriented them
chance pops north to slight chance pops south Thu/Thu Night with
only isolated mainly diurnally driven pops for Fri attm.

There are some discrepancies on just where the sfc frontal
boundary will be located Fri Night and thru the upcoming weekend
and this will be critical when it comes to the potential for heavy
rainfall once again possibly materializing across portions of our
region in advance of a weak upper trough that exits the Four
Corners Region of the Country late Sat into Sat Night. The good
news is this weekend`s system appears to be a quick mover with
most of the precipitation having moved east of our region during
the day Sunday or into Sunday Night. For now, have advertised
returning likely pops across our far NW zones late Fri Night and
likely pops areawide during the day Sat and Sat Night with pops
ending across our region during the day Sunday.

Upper ridging will prevail across our region beyond Sunday into
the first part of the upcoming work week which will bring with it
a drying trend and modifying temperatures.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the 17/06Z TAF update, MVFR cigs/VCSH will continue to linger
across the airspace as a slow-moving frontal boundary lingers
through the period, maintaining southerly surface winds as a
result. /16/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  71  86  68 /  10  10  30  30
MLU  83  69  83  66 /  10  10  30  20
DEQ  84  66  83  58 /   0  10  30  50
TXK  85  69  84  64 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  84  66  83  63 /  10  10  40  40
TYR  85  70  84  65 /   0  10  30  30
GGG  85  70  84  66 /   0  10  30  30
LFK  85  70  86  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...16