Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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445 FXUS64 KSJT 012348 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 648 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Evening... Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across far west Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline during peak heating this afternoon, with storms moving eastward across the area during the evening hours. Initial storms are expected to be discrete, with supercells likely, then storms should become more linear with time as they push east across the area. Latest meso-analysis shows SBCAPES between 3000-4000 J/kg, which will support intense updrafts with any storms that develop. Effective shear is currently around 25 kts, but is expected to increase this evening as a shortwave approaches from the west. This will result in more widespread thunderstorm development later this evening. Very strong instability, coupled with steep lapse rates will support large to very large hail with any supercells initially, along with a tornado threat. Storms should gradually become more outflow dominant as they move eastward with time, with damaging winds becoming more of a concern. Storms should exit far southeast counties between 2 and 3 AM, although some lingering showers may remain for a bit longer across eastern portions of the forecast area. Thunderstorms will possible again Thursday afternoon and evening, as the dryline sets of across central sections and a weak cold front enters the Big Country during the late afternoon hours. In addition, several outflow boundaries will likely be present. Thunderstorm development will be possible along any of these features tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Very strong instability will occur east of the dryline and south of the front, along with deep layer shear between 35 and 40 kts. These parameters will support severe storms capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The greatest risk for severe storms tomorrow will be across the eastern two thirds of the Big Country, eastern portions of the Concho Valley and the Heartland counties. As for temperatures, expect lows tonight in the mid and upper 60s, with highs Thursday mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. However, a few readings in the mid 90s will be possible across the western Concho Valley west of the dryline. && LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Late Thursday afternoon, a dryline will be situated across our central counties. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern counties. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the evening hours, ahead of the front and east of the dryline. Most of this activity should be confined to our eastern counties. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big Country, behind the weak cold front, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Overall, drier conditions are forecast on Friday, although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the remnant cold front in the region. Saturday into Sunday, West Central Texas will be in the southwest flow aloft, with a weak remnant cold front in the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible both days, with the higher rain chances across the Big Country. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any thunderstorms. Highs will be slightly cooler, generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions are expected next week with much warmer temperatures. Highs by Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s, with highs on Wednesday in the approaching the upper 90s in some locations. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals this evening and overnight. Will maintain TEMPO groups at the terminals for convection based on latest high resolution model data. Convection will end from west to east between 05Z-07Z. MVFR ceilings currently at KSOA and KBBD, with additional MVFR ceilings developing across the rest of the terminals overnight. Could see some IFR ceilings across the southern terminals after 10Z. For now, will keep ceilings MVFR due to lower confidence in IFR conditions and will re-evaluate for the 06Z package. Ceilings expected to lift/scatter to VFR by early afternoon. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 64 90 62 / 30 70 10 20 San Angelo 88 64 94 65 / 30 70 10 0 Junction 87 66 90 69 / 40 70 Isolated to10 10 Brownwood 82 65 86 66 / 30 80 20 20 Sweetwater 88 64 90 62 / 40 70 10 10 Ozona 83 66 92 65 / 30 50 10 0 Brady 83 66 87 67 / 30 80 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...24