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000
FXUS64 KSJT 230525
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Another cool night is expected with lows in the low to mid 50s.
These temperatures are very close to seasonal normals. An upper
level trough will track across the Northern Plains Monday night into
Tuesday morning, sending a weak cold front into the northern Big
Country by late Tuesday afternoon. The front may serve as a lifting
mechanism and result in the development of isolated showers and
thunderstorms by late in the afternoon, mainly across the northern
Big Country. Any storms that do develop may be strong to severe,
with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. This
activity will then spread south and east through the evening hours,
with most of the storms dissipating by mid to late evening. Although
a few storms could sneak south of I-20, most of the activity should
remain to the north of I-20. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 80s to
near 90, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

On Wednesday, upper level ridging will move into the area,
continuing the warm-up for the region. To our west, the dryline
will sharpen up. Temperatures may warm enough to break the cap for
a few isolated storms to develop, but confidence is very low in
significant coverage of these storms.

Thursday into the weekend, our weather will generally become more
active. upper level pattern becomes more active. By Thursday
afternoon, an upper level trough will be moving into the Four
Corners region, putting our area in southwest flow aloft. A
dryline will sharpen to our west at the surface with a warm, moist
air mass in place over west central Texas. Thunderstorms, some of
which may be severe, could develop off of the dryline, and affect
areas north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line during the late
afternoon and evening. The dryline is expected to move through
Thursday night into Friday. This should keep our area dry for the
most part Friday, but showers and storms may still affect eastern
areas Friday afternoon/evening.

Another upper level low will quickly follow behind Thursday`s
trough. Models show surface wins quickly turning back to the
south/southeast Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing Gulf
moisture back into our area. Fast southwest flow aloft with
embedded shortwaves, along with an advancing Pacific cold
front/dryline will allow for another chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Once again, there is a
chance for some of these storms to become strong to severe.

A return to zonal flow aloft is expected from Sunday into Monday,
which should bring quieter weather to the region. A cold front
may move through the area next Sunday night.

Temperatures will be generally near normal or warmer with highs
mainly in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, and lows mainly in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

MVFR stratus returns north along I-10 around 8Z, and to KSJT to
KBBD 10-11Z. Stratus will scatter out mid to late morning. LLWS
through 14Z, as a south 50 KT LLJ as indicated on the KSJT and
KABI VAD. Wind gusts 20-24 KTS possible mid morning as the LLJ
mixes out.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  85  67  85 /  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  62  89  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    64  87  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   61  82  66  84 /  10   0  10  10
Sweetwater  60  84  67  84 /  20  10  10  20
Ozona       62  86  66  83 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       64  83  67  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04