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000
FXUS62 KTAE 172329
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
729 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Upper level flow becomes more zonal over the period due to deepening
upper level trough over south central Canada develops flattening the
upper level ridge over the Gulf. At the surface a weak boundary
passes to our north allowing mid and high level clouds to continue
filtering through the region tonight. This should hinder widespread
fog development, but if there are any breaks in the clouds patchy
fog will be possible across most of southeast AL and the FL
counties. Any fog that does develop will be short lived and
dissipate after sunrise. Outside of that, look for a mix of sun and
clouds for Thursday with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s
for much of the region, upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Zonal flow continues through the end of the week as light west and
southwest flow prevails through the period. The main forecast
highlights through the end of the work week will be warming
temperatures as we climb into the upper 80s and perhaps as warm as
the low 90s in some locations on Friday. Temperatures in the 90s
will likely near some records across the forecast area with the
record high in Tallahassee being 92 degrees. No rain is expected
during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The zonal flow continues into the weekend until a series of
disturbances move through late Saturday and on Sunday/Monday.
These disturbances should bring temperatures back to more
seasonable levels for early next week along with a return of some
rain chances. Before the first disturbance moves in late Saturday
afternoon/evening, we`ll see another day of near-record
temperatures. The record high for Tallahassee on Saturday is 93
and the current forecast high is 91, but some guidance does show
the area possibly hitting that record high in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler, and in the upper 80s, across
southeast Alabama where the influence of the first weak
disturbance and associated cold front shower activity keeps
temperatures down a little. This wave moves through overnight with
much of the rain chances largely confined to our Alabama and
Georgia counties. The second disturbance passes through Sunday
afternoon and into the evening hours bringing more widespread
chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The aviation forecast gets a bit complicated overnight into Thu
morning with the potential for fog, mainly at DHN, ECP, TLH, and
perhaps VLD. A drier air mass should preclude fog at ABY. The
main change with this update was to expand the duration of fog a
bit at the affected sites. Fog onset will generally be in the
07Z-11Z time frame, dissipating around 14Z. Highest confidence is
at ECP and TLH, with IFR restrictions; cannot rule out LIFR
restrictions, but the potential is not high attm. There is more
uncertainty with the extent of fog at DHN and VLD, but sufficient
confidence for an IFR TEMPO at DHN and an MVFR TEMPO at VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SE winds 10-15 kts and 2-3-ft seas
with a dominant period of up to 5 seconds late this morning.

From CWF Synopsis...Surface high pressure will keep our waters
relatively calm through the forecast period with favorable boating
conditions expected. On Sunday, a cold front will push through
the area bringing rain and thunderstorms back into the forecast.
Southerly winds will prevail through the majority of the forecast
period before becoming northerly following the passage of the
front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Elevated dispersions continue  this afternoon, with more favorable
dispersions returning for Thu and Fri.
High dispersions are expected for much of the region on Sat. Outside
of that, dry conditions are forecast with minRH values over the next
few days 40-60 percent range, with the higher values being found as
you get closer to the coast and overnight recovery being excellent.
There`s a slight chance that our southwest GA and southeast counties
could see a few showers or thunderstorms, but wetting rain is not
expected. Better chances for wetting rain arrives on Sunday when a
front works its way through the region.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks...

There is medium confidence that patchy fog, which could be dense at
times, could develop for the FL counties and most of SE AL. There is
low confidence that patchy fog could develop in the southern tier of
GA counties, Seminole to Lowndes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Dry conditions will prevail for the next few days before the
next system moves into our area on Sunday. Less than a half of an
inch of rainfall is expected to occur with this weekend system
areawide.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla,
and Ochlockonee rivers have generally crested and while they
remain in flood, are now falling as water from last week`s rains
continues to move through the system. The Suwanee basin is now
seeing water from upstream make its way into the basin and is now
into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford. Expect
possible rises to continue down the Suwanee with additional points
possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   80  65  80  66 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        86  63  85  65 /   0  10  10   0
Albany        86  63  85  65 /   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      87  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  65  76  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs