Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251748
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
148 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The main update to today`s forecast was issuing a Wind Advisory
for the Emerald Coast and inland Walton County for occasional to
frequent gusts up to 40 mph. A tight pressure gradient overlaid
with a notable 30-40-kt LLJ are the culprits. Point soundings
support mixing these stronger winds down to the surface given a
fairly deep mixed layer (roughly sfc-850 mb). Observations are
already also showing 20-25+ mph gusts in the advisory area late
this morning. Afternoon trends will be monitored closely for any
potential spatial expansions. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Mid level ridging will be parked along the east coast this period
with southwesterly mid level flow upstream of the ridge axis and
downstream of an approaching trough and surface cold front. Surface
high pressure ridging will extend down the Appalachians and as the
front moves toward the area, the pressure gradient tightens. This
will lead to gusty southeast winds today and tonight. Current models
depict a 40 knot 925mb jet overhead with some gusty winds being
reported from time to time across area observations. These stronger
winds shift west this morning but the surface gradient will still
allow winds of 15-20 mph with some gusts approaching 30-35 mph.
Indications are that these winds will continue into the evening
hours after sunset with the same 925mb winds setting back up over
the area. After midnight, winds will start to decrease areawide with
speeds dropping back down in the 10-15 mph but a few gusts will
remain possible.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across Mississippi
into Alabama tonight and will remain west of the area. Therefore,
dry conditions are anticipated this period with a mix of sun and
clouds today with increasing clouds tonight. Highs will range
through the 70s to perhaps around 80 degrees in the Florida Big
Bend. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A large upper trough with an embedded upper trough
will progress east through the short term. At the surface, low
pressure will occlude from the Central Plains up toward the Great
Lakes with its attendant cold front extending down toward our area.
By the afternoon on Tuesday, the cold front will be within our
forecast area progressing west to east. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints
appear evident ahead of the front across the western FL Panhandle
and SE AL with 0-1km SRH ranging from 100-200m2s2. There are
concerns regarding instability given persistent cloud cover
resulting in MLCAPE around 500J/kg and lapse rates around 6C/km
which would inhibit buoyancy and surface based storms. There may be
a window in the late afternoon/early evening where perhaps a severe
storm or two could occur along the coast and possibly trek further
inland, though it appears that storms may struggle to remain surface
based. If storms do remain surface based, long hodographs point
toward a wind threat and perhaps a tornado or two with the main
focus along our coastal FL Panhandle counties.

On Wednesday, storms will continue as the cold front continues
progressing to the east. However, most of the forcing will have
shifted north resulting in a broken line of storms with a lower end
severe threat. The main threat with this would be a few damaging
wind gusts as long straight hodographs are evident ahead of the cold
front. Following the cold front, northwest flow will filter drier
and cooler air into the region Wednesday night.

Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s with highs in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold
front leading to clear skies and a bout of cooler overnight
temperatures in the 40s on Friday and Saturday morning. As high
pressure continues to build over the region, a warming trend appears
likely toward the end of the work week into the weekend. Wednesday
through Friday will see highs in the 70s before breaking into the
80s beneath clear, sunny skies areawide this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Gusty SE winds will continue to be a concern this TAF cycle with
aftn obs showing frequent gusts of 20+ kt. A line of SHRA/TSRA
approaches the western terminals tmrw morning. Some storms may be
strong to severe. Used the 12Z HREF to time the onset of this line
at DHN/ECP around 15Z for which thunder was intro`d and at least
MVFR conds, but holds off on TLH/ABY until after 18Z. Sustained
winds around 15 kts turn more southerly just ahead of the
attendant cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Buoy 42012 was reporting sustained east winds of 23 kts with gusts
in excess of 30 kts, 11-ft seas, and a dominant period of 8 sec.
Meanwhile, Buoy 42036 was reporting ESE 21 kts (gusting to 27
kts), 7-ft seas, and a dominant period of 5 sec. These late-
morning observations are supportive of the active marine hazards.

From CWF Synopsis...An approaching cold front and tight pressure
gradient will continue to bring gusty east winds over our waters.
A gale warning is currently in effect for the western legs with a
small craft advisory elsewhere. Additionally, seas will build
around 7-10 feet west of Apalachicola with seas around 4-7 feet
eastward. Winds will become northwesterly late Wednesday into
Thursday as the cold front pushes through with a lingering tight
pressure gradient in its wake, likely resulting in at least
cautionary conditions over our waters once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The main concern today is high dispersions and gusty winds. Winds
today will be from the east southeast with speeds of 10-20 mph and
gusts approaching 30 mph and higher. Rain and thunderstorms arrive
from west to east Tuesday associated with a cold front which will
slow its forward speed which will keep rain chances high through
Wednesday night with the system moving away to the northeast
Thursday. A period of dry conditions is expected Thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Locally heavy rainfall is looking like an increasing possibility
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall totals have come up a good bit
since the previous forecast--now widespread 1.5 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts. Looking at ensemble guidance, it appears
the most likely area for the heaviest rainfall would be from about
Panama City to Albany eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
is about the location the front will slow down and stall briefly.
The Weather Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (level
2 of 4) for southeast Alabama, far southwest Georgia, and the
Florida Panhandle for Tuesday night with a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) area wide for Wednesday. Given the possibility of locally
heavier rain from slow-moving storms, there is at least some
potential for flash flooding. Flash flood guidance is a bit lower
across AL and GA with 3.5-4.5 inches in 6 hours and about 4-5
inches in 6 hours in FL.

On the rivers, all rivers have fallen out of flood stage and have
gotten a break to recede. However, depending on where the heavy
rain sets up, we may see a return to action stage or even minor
flooding on the rivers later this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   80  64  76  66 /   0   0  30  70
Panama City   75  66  74  63 /   0  10  70  70
Dothan        74  63  74  59 /   0  10  90  60
Albany        73  59  76  63 /   0   0  50  70
Valdosta      76  60  82  66 /   0   0  20  50
Cross City    81  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  71  66  71  65 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ007-008-
     108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Worster/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Young


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