Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 250529
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Monday.

-Rain showers linger this afternoon before a round of storms
 moves into central KS this evening. A few storms could produce
 damaging wind and small hail.

-Light snow and minor accumulations will be possible (40-60% chance)
 Monday night.

-A hard freeze is expected early Tuesday and early Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Early this afternoon, water vapor imagery and upper air analysis
showed a trough advancing eastward from the Four Corners region with
a surge of moisture moving north out of Oklahoma. Surface low
pressure was continuing to deepen in southeast Colorado ahead of
the advancing upper system. A pressure gradient of about 9 mb
from west to east across the CWA is keeping southerly winds
strong this afternoon, and gusts to 50 mph remain possible
today. Rain showers with a few embedded storms will continue to
impact portions of eastern KS as moisture and lift increase in
response to the approaching system. Focus turns to the chance
for more robust thunderstorm development in south-central KS
late this afternoon. CAMs show storms moving into central KS
after about 8 PM and moving north toward Nebraska through about
1 AM tonight. Storms appear to outrun the highest instability
axis with HREF showing a model average of less than 500 J/kg of
MUCAPE available when storms move in. The strong wind field in
place will allow for about 35-50 kts of bulk shear. Storms will
likely move quickly and could produce isolated 60 mph wind
gusts and small hail. Drier weather is then expected briefly on
Monday as the dry slot of the system moves overhead.

The main changes to the forecast with this package were to slow the
system as it moves through the area on Monday, and to add light snow
further south Monday night. Models show the surface low slowing it`s
northeastward progression as the upper portion of the system pivots
over KS. A cold front associated with the surface low looks to
progress east through the CWA Monday afternoon and early
evening. Instability should build ahead of the front with
another round of thunderstorm development near the boundary late
in the afternoon. Depending on the position of the front,
storms could impact far eastern KS before moving into Missouri.
Further west, moisture wrapping around the system could (40-60%
chance) produce light snow for portions of north-central KS late
Monday. Snow will move east across the area Monday night and
early Tuesday morning. A dusting to half an inch will be
possible, especially near and north of I-70.

Surface high pressure builds into the region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A colder air mass will accompany the ridge with temperatures
dropping into the 20s early Tuesday morning and low 20s to teens for
many locations early Wednesday morning. A quick warming trend is
then anticipated for the last half of the workweek when southerly
low level flow and mid-level ridging returns. High temperatures by
Friday are forecast to reach the 70s. Dry conditions are expected
from midweek into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A few showers will be possible still over the next hour or two but
chances fall off after this. Band of MVFR ceilings is approaching
from the southwest and once it arrives over the next few hours will
last until around mid-morning before clearing. Winds stay southerly
to southeasterly at 10-20 kts today before changing to the northwest
this evening behind the cold front. More MVFR ceilings arrive near
the very end of the period, along with light rain/snow chances.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese


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