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000
FXUS63 KTOP 191721
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing cloud cover should inhibit frost formation this morning
and Saturday morning, despite lows in the mid to upper 30s in some
locations.

- Low chance for rain showers late tonight across north central
  Kansas, otherwise dry conditions until the upper air pattern
  becomes more active next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Weak mid level perturbation noted on water vapor imagery drifting
across the central plains this morning in the form mid to high
clouds. These clouds have allowed temps this morning to remain in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, mitigating the widespread frost
potential and need for an advisory. Anticipate the clouds to stick
around this afternoon, especially north of Interstate 70 as sfc high
pressure overhead creates light and variable winds throughout the
day. With the lighter winds and lesser CAA, highs are forecast a few
degrees warmer into the lower 60s, warmest where there are lesser
clouds along/south of I-70. Secondary impulse comes off the CO
rockies late this evening, interacting with a mid-level frontal
boundary and developing light showers across portions of Kansas. A
few of those showers may impact central KS through sunrise. Cloud
bases are fairly high around 9 kft so am not anticipating plentiful
rainfall unfortunately.

A northern stream shortwave trough traverses the Great Lakes region
Saturday, dropping a cold front southward into the area as northeast
winds pickup at 10 to 15 mph. Forecast soundings also exhibit
thicker, more widespread cloud cover so am anticipating highs
Saturday to fall back to the cool side in the mid to upper 50s. The
temp rebound commences Sunday as sfc high pressure shifts southeast,
backing low level winds to the west Sunday afternoon and south on
Monday. Highs return closer to seasonal norms next week in the low
70s each day while overnight lows are in the 40s.

The next upper wave deepens over the Great Lakes region Monday
evening into Tuesday, pushing a weak cold front and increased pops
in the CWA during this period. Ensemble probs are still varied on
timing, available moisture, and strength of the system. Probability
for at least 0.10 inches of QPF is 30-50% on GEFS and less than 30%
on the ENS. The following slow moving upper trough appears more
promising for widespread showers and storm chances Wed. evening -
Friday.  GFS maintains the stronger, more negatively tilted wave
which signal stronger thunderstorms, but details are too far away to
discern at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light
northeasterly wind and scattered to broken CIGS above 10,000
AGL.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Jones