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000
FXUS64 KTSA 140805
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
305 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Today as a mid-level ridge builds over the area.
Temperatures are forecast to top out in the 80s across much of the
area with some 90 degree readings possible from Tulsa to the northwest.
The south-southwest winds are not expected to be as strong today when
compared to yesterday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The trend of unseasonably warm days continues on Monday with high temperatures
again in the 80s across much of the area. The southerly winds are expected to
increase Monday afternoon with gusts around 30 mph. There could be a few elevated
showers and storms across northeast Oklahoma in advance of the next storm system.

Showers and storms continue to look likely Monday night into Tuesday as a mid-level
low moves out of the Rockies and across the Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of the dry line late Monday afternoon/evening across
northwest Texas/southwest Oklahoma and continue near a Pacific cold front
that will overtake the dryline and spread east Monday night. The boundary will
likely be across central Oklahoma at 12z Tuesday and across far southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas by 00z Wednesday. With adequate instability and deep layer
shear in place, some of the storms will have the potential to be strong to severe
with large hail and damaging wind the main concern. The potential for tornado is very
low but not zero with any storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer near
the frontal boundary.

Fire weather will become a concern Tuesday afternoon behind the front as
dry air surges into the region on the heels of a strong gusty southwest wind.
With afternoon temperatures still topping out in the 80s and relative humidity
values dropping to around 25 percent, near critical Grassland Fire Spread rates
are forecast for much of northeast Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon.

After a bit of a lull in the weather on Wednesday, the chances of showers and storms
return Thursday as a cold front through much of the area before stalling out near
the Red River on Friday. There will be continued chances of showers Friday and
Saturday as the frontal boundary lingers near the area.


&&
before
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. LLWS will
continue into Sunday morning. South winds will gust to over 20
knots at times through the day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  65  84  65 /   0   0  20  80
FSM   86  65  85  66 /   0   0   0  50
MLC   86  65  82  64 /   0   0  10  70
BVO   90  62  84  62 /   0   0  20  80
FYV   85  62  84  62 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   85  63  85  65 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   86  65  82  65 /   0   0  10  70
MIO   85  65  83  65 /   0   0  20  70
F10   88  66  82  66 /   0   0  10  80
HHW   82  64  78  64 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05