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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221643
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Mostly clear skies and breezy southerly winds will continue
through the afternoon with highs topping out a few degrees above
yesterday, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The forecast is
on track and no additional updates are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Warming trend will continue on Tuesday ahead of next cold front,
which is forecast to move into the region Tuesday afternoon/eve.
A few showers will be possible along boundary across NE OK/NW AR,
including a few scattered thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as boundary stalls near the I-40 corridor.

An active spring weather pattern is expected late week through
the weekend with several rounds of showers/thunderstorms likely,
including severe weather.

Low level moisture will continue to lift north Wednesday into
Wednesday night with elevated showers/thunderstorms likely developing
across eastern Oklahoma in convergent zone of low level jet axis.
A few of these storms could be strong to marginally severe late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with hail the primary
threat.

Strong upper low is progged to lift northeast into the central
Plains on Friday with widespread showers/thunderstorms likely
during the day. Instability/shear profiles suggest the likelihood
for severe weather, however the timing and evolution will need to
be better resolved to determine if a more significant/widespread
severe weather event is likely. Specific threats will continue to
be refined over the next several days as additional data becomes
available.

Another vigorous upper low will move out of the desert Southwest
over the weekend with the potential for another round of severe
weather/heavier rainfall. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Clear or mostly clear skies will persist through Tuesday morning,
at which time mid and high level clouds will gradually increase
but no rain is expected during the TAF period. Breezy southerly
winds with gusts of 15-25 mph will continue through sundown. These
winds will continue, albeit a bit weaker overnight, allowing for
a period of LLWS from the southwest. Tomorrow morning the
southerly winds will increase again with wind shear diminishing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  53  70 /   0  10  20  40
FSM   49  79  57  73 /   0  10  20  30
MLC   53  78  59  73 /   0  10  30  40
BVO   51  77  48  70 /   0  10  10  40
FYV   49  77  51  71 /   0  10  20  30
BYV   51  76  50  69 /   0  20  20  20
MKO   52  77  56  69 /   0  10  20  40
MIO   52  74  49  69 /   0  20  10  20
F10   53  78  56  69 /   0  10  30  50
HHW   49  74  59  74 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06