Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
602 FXUS65 KTWC 012151 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 251 PM MST Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm, and dry this week with breezy afternoons on most days. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows another clear sky day over southern Arizona with a trough moving through the Great Basin. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon with occasional gusts to around 25 mph as the trough passes to our north. A transition to more of a westerly flow pattern through the remainder of the week will result in high temperatures remaining steady at a few degrees above seasonal normal for southeast Arizona through the weekend. Surface heating will continue to yield typical afternoon desert breeziness. Sunday into Monday a strong trough will approach the area bringing breezy to gusty winds and cooler temperatures into the forecast focus. Ensembles continue to depict the trough moving onto the west coast Saturday. Differences among ensemble solutions remain in just how deep the trough will be as it approaches southeast Arizona on Sunday into Monday and if it takes a slight northward trajectory. A slightly weaker and northern trajectory of the trough would result in less influence in the high temperature on Monday whereas the southern deeper trajectory offered by the GEFS could lead to a drop in high temperatures Monday on the order of 10 degrees. The NBM even hints at least in a small chance (~10 percent) of the high temperature Monday being below 80 degrees for Tucson with a quick rebound after the system exits. Regardless of the differences amongst ensembles, breezy to locally windy conditions are anticipated on Sunday as the trough approaches. Ensembles are indicating the possibility of sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts exceeding 30 mph, especially across higher desert valleys south and east of Tucson on Sunday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z. SKC throughout the TAF period with SWLY SFC winds up to 18 kts. Occasional wind gusts up to 25 kts. Light and variable overnight before SWLY-WLY SFC winds pick up aft 02/20Z. Wind speeds less than 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures remain above normal throughout the rest of the week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph. The strongest winds are expected to be today, Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 mph. Min RHs in the valleys continue to be in the single digits for the lower valleys with values in the teens for the mountains. Looking ahead, there is increasing confidence in gusty southwest winds on Sunday afternoon with min RHs continuing to be in the single digits in the valleys and below 20 percent in the mountains. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...DVS Aviation...Giralte Fire Weather....Giralte Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson