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000
FXUS61 KCAR 180109
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
909 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the region overnight and moves east of the
area by Friday. An occluded front approaches later Friday,
crosses the region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes
Sunday. High pressure builds toward the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:09 PM Update: Quiet weather overnight as surface high
pressure builds into Maine from Quebec. The diurnally driven
cloud fields that formed mainly across the Crown have mostly
dissipated with the loss of heating over the past 2 hours. There
is a frontal boundary well to the south and west of Maine with
a bit of cirrus north of the front, but that is about all for
the remainder of the night. The combination of a mainly clear
sky and light wind will allow temperatures to drop below
freezing for most interior spots, especially in the valleys, but
it will remain a little above freezing right along the
shoreline. Only minor tweaks for the remainder of the night, but
otherwise the forecast is in great shape.

Previous discussion:
Surface/upper level ridging build across the region tonight
through Thursday. Diurnal clouds, most extensive across northern
Aroostook county, will dissipate early tonight leaving clear
skies overnight. Expect mostly sunny skies Thursday with
diurnal cloud development. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the mid to upper 20s north, to around 30 to the lower 30s
Downeast. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid to
upper 50s across much of the forecast area. Lower to mid 50s are
expected along the Downeast coast where a sea breeze will
likely develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday Night...
Surface high pressure will be over the area with very light
winds. However, a very weak shortwave trough, further weakening
as it moves into our area later in the night, will likely bring
increased high clouds. Should still cool off pretty easily,
especially early in the night, with lows around freezing.

Friday...
Surface high pressure moves to our east with a south breeze
developing. Some mid and high level clouds but no precipitation
as atmosphere will be too dry. Fairly mild with highs around 60
in the north and low to mid 50s closer to the coast with
temperatures a little cooler there thanks to the onshore
breeze.

Friday Night...
Weak shortwave trough moves through from west to east along with
an occluded front. It should be warm enough for rain, and
precipitation is looking quite light and less than a quarter
inch. Some places may not get any rain. Breezy from the south,
but no concern that it will be strong enough to lead to any
impacts.

Saturday...
The breeze shifts to west/southwest behind the occluded front.
Some showers could persist, but think that much more of the day
Saturday will be dry than wet. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Looking a bit cooler Sunday and Monday with cooler air under
west/northwest flow. Generally dry, though can`t rule out a
shower or two in the north/northwest.

Pattern begins to shift Tuesday as flow becomes SW ahead of an
an upper level low diving down from the north. Should be a bit
warmer Tuesday and still dry. Then Wednesday/Thursday could be
rather active as the upper level low pressure moves somewhere
roughly over our region. Still plenty of model disagreement on
where the upper level low goes along with its strength and
amount of moisture. Most models/ensembles have some rain Wed/Wed
night. However, a minority of models do have it getting cold
enough with enough moisture lingering for rain changing to
accumulating snow Wed night or Thursday. Definitely something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected overnight through Thursday.
North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots overnight. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots Thursday, except becoming onshore SSW around 10
knots at KBHB in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night and Friday...VFR. Light winds becoming southerly
at 10 to 15 kt Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday morning...MVFR tempo IFR due to cigs.
Southerly winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwesterly 10 to 15 kt.

Saturday afternoon through Monday...VFR. West winds 10 to 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions generally below small craft, though
conditions may get close to small craft levels late Friday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A prolonged period of dry weather with low relative humidity and
gusty winds is expected through Tuesday. The only decent rain
chance comes Friday night, when amounts will be less than a
quarter inch.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...CB/Norcross/Foisy
Marine...CB/Norcross/Foisy
Fire Weather...Foisy