Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192109
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
309 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low level moisture within stiff southeast winds will be working
into the area mainly along and east of the Rio Grande this
evening, which will allow some thunderstorm development to take
place. A few of these will have the potential to become severe
with quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts, though most of the
storms will not be this strong. On Friday winds will shift to
southwesterly with dry air and blowing dust in spots. This will be
followed by a mild and pleasant weekend and then a warming trend
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Still waiting on sufficient low level moisture from the southeast
to fuel some thunderstorms in mainly the eastern half of the CWA
this evening. A veering vertical wind profile will be favorable
for a storm or two to become severe, provided that moisture is
deep enough. A minor impulse in advance of the main Pacific upper
low will add to the dynamics, though the left exit region of a jet
max to the southwest may not be overhead until it`s too late.
Meanwhile, low level southeast flow (and expected dryline) will
retreat westward overnight. By the time it pushes east with the
advance of the upper trough early Friday, there won`t be enough
surface heating to maintain a storm-happy atmosphere except for
perhaps eastern Hudspeth/Otero Counties. Overall, the thinking is
we`ll have plenty of ingredients for storms this evening in the
eastern portion, but the amount of moisture will determine just
how active we will be, and whether severe criteria can be met.

On Friday, dry gusty southwest winds will spread critical fire
conditions (currently western portion) eastward across the the
entire area. At this point it appears wind speeds will remain just
below wind advisory criterium, but still strong enough for some
blowing dust. Temperatures will also stay a little below normal
into the weekend before an upper ridge allows a warm-up next week.
Within that scenario, however, the models bring a couple of
impulses our way along with backdoor fronts. Thus a few
thunderstorms may enter the picture at times, mainly eastern
portion and not until midweek.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
00Z-03Z West of the Cntnl Divide SCT100 SCT250 winds WSW 17G27KT PY
BLDU. 03Z-15Z SCT250 SCT100 winds WSW 15G25KTS. AFT 15Z SCT100
SCT250 winds WSW 22 G 32KTS AREAS 3-6 SM BLDU. EAST OF THE
Continental Divide 00Z-06Z SCT060 SCT100 SCT250 winds 13017G27KT.
LCL 040BKN 1SM +TSRA winds . AFT 06Z-15Z SCT100 SCT250 winds
15g25kts. AFT 15Z SCT100 SCT250 winds 23025G35KT vsby lcl 3- 6SM
BLDU. OCNLlgt/mdt turbc ovr/nr mtns blo 15K MSL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another low moving out of Northern California will move across the
Four Corners area through Friday. Winds will be out of the south to
southeast Thursday evening east of the divide and from the southwest
west of the divide. Red Flag Warning is in effect for Hidalgo and
Grant counties until 8 PM tonight. Humidities east of the river will
be above 15 percent with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Even some dry lightning is possible toward the west.
As the upper low moves eastward on Friday and scours out all of the
moisture, the entire area should see critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 63  78  52  79 /  30   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           55  80  45  76 /  30   0   0   0
Las Cruces              52  72  44  76 /  30   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  73  45  76 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              41  48  30  56 /  40  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences   54  72  45  77 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City             41  62  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  48  71  41  79 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               42  69  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      61  73  52  79 /  30   0   0   0
Dell City               46  79  43  79 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            59  82  48  82 /  30   0   0   0
Loma Linda              51  70  49  73 /  40   0   0   0
Fabens                  56  78  49  81 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            56  74  46  79 /  30   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          58  72  50  76 /  30   0   0   0
Jornada Range           47  72  43  76 /  30   0   0   0
Hatch                   49  74  43  79 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus                50  74  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               58  73  47  77 /  40   0   0   0
Mayhill                 44  59  34  65 /  30  30   0   0
Mescalero               46  57  35  63 /  20  20   0   0
Timberon                43  56  33  62 /  40  20   0   0
Winston                 35  63  33  71 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro               46  68  41  77 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport               48  71  41  76 /  30   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            30  60  29  73 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  40  63  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   33  66  31  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              32  64  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 42  65  38  75 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  44  71  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 44  71  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          46  72  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              44  67  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110-111.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

01/20 Fausett/Novlan



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