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000
FXUS64 KFWD 241941
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
241 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
/This afternoon through Thursday night/

Showers and thunderstorms remain along and north of the Red River
near a stalled front. Westerly steering flow is keeping the
majority of activity in Oklahoma but a few showers and storms will
be possible generally north of the Highway 380 corridor. Moisture
will remain below 700 mb through Thursday, keeping plenty of
clouds in place, although some breaks in the clouds will allow
the sun to make brief appearances. The combination of steady low
level warm air advection and a bit of solar heating will allow
afternoon temperatures to warm into the middle 70s to the lower
80s.

The frontal boundary will lift slowly northward tonight through
Thursday morning but still may produce a few showers and storms
north of the 380 corridor. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and
humid with lows in the 60s. Most of Thursday will be rain-free but
remain cloudy with strong low level warm/moist advection
continuing. Large scale ascent will increase Thursday night once
an upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains. Storms will
develop on the dryline across West Texas during the afternoon and
evening, spreading eastward through the night. These storms will
likely begin to impact about the northwestern half of the
forecast area before sunrise Friday. Some strong to severe storms
will be possible, especially across the far northwestern
counties. Instability and shear will be sufficient for storm
organization with hail and damaging winds being the primary
hazards. This severe weather threat will spread eastward on
Friday which is detailed in the long term discussion below.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through Early Next Week/

There will be several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend. The potential for severe thunderstorms will
exist, but their coverage and timing will depend on a variety of
factors. This will mainly involve the placement of a stalled
frontal boundary and a surface dry line. That being said, large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats along with
frequent lightning. There is a low chance for an isolated tornado
or two as well. It is important to note that regardless of the
areal placement of these storms, coverage will vary through the
weekend and several locations may not see any storms at all.

A shortwave trough will push through the region early Friday
morning, with rapid height falls across North and Central Texas.
An approaching cold front will interact with an open warm sector
that will be in place across our region, leading to the first
round of showers and thunderstorms. These will be propagating
within a storm environment that will be favorable for severe
weather on Friday morning through the afternoon and evening hours.
Storms will exit to the east on Friday night before our next
round of thunderstorms moves in through Saturday and Sunday as
another shortwave trough pushes across the Central Plains. Surface
features such as the dry line and a stalling frontal boundary
will largely dictate where storms develop through the rest of the
weekend, and confidence in their placement as of right now remains
quite low. Because of this, a broad mention of showers and
thunderstorms is necessary for the public forecast until details
can be further refined as higher resolution guidance comes into
range for the weekend. On top of this, a windy weekend will be in
store with ambient winds potentially gusting upwards of 45 mph as
a tight pressure gradient sets up ahead of our weekend system. A
Wind Advisory will likely be necessary on Saturday in future
forecast packages as we refine these details further.

While most of the ingredients for severe weather will be in
place, the ultimate question will be regarding the overall quality
of lift with the placement of both shortwave troughs and the
location of our surface features. The strength of our residual
EML/capping inversion will also be in play for our active weather
over the weekend. With all of this being said, please continue to
stay up-to-date with the latest forecast as confidence increases
over the next couple of days.

As we move into early next week, a weak ridge will begin to set
up once again. This will lead to a short-lived period of dry
weather before chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
North and Central Texas as our next system pushes into the region.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Ceilings will be a bit of a challenge to pinpoint through this
evening with the Metroplex TAF sites bouncing between MVFR and
VFR. Since low level moisture is fairly deep, we don`t anticipate
much scattering to occur, but there will be periods with broken
clouds with bases around 6000 ft. Waco will likely see IFR
ceilings lift above 1000 ft early this afternoon but bases may
struggle to get higher than 3000 ft.

The low level jet will increase tonight in response to the next
approaching upper trough. The result will be a resurgence of
moisture with low end MVFR to high end IFR ceilings at all TAF
sites through Thursday morning. The stronger wind should limit
visibility restrictions overall but some patchy fog with 3 to 5
mile visibility is possible early Thursday morning.

All appreciable showers/storms will remain well north of the TAF
sites through this forecast cycle but some brief sprinkles or
light rain will be possible. Better storm chances are expected
overnight Thursday though Friday.

A south wind will remain in the 7 to 13 knot range through
Thursday along with some gusts as high as 20 knots, especially
Thursday.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  80  68  83  69 /  10   5  40  70  10
Waco                67  80  69  79  70 /   5   5  10  70  10
Paris               65  79  68  76  68 /  20  10  30  80  30
Denton              67  79  67  83  68 /  10   5  60  70  10
McKinney            67  78  68  80  69 /  10   5  40  70  20
Dallas              68  80  69  82  70 /   5   5  30  70  20
Terrell             65  79  68  78  69 /   5   5  20  80  20
Corsicana           67  82  71  81  71 /   0   5  10  70  20
Temple              67  81  69  81  70 /   0   5  10  60  10
Mineral Wells       67  81  67  86  67 /  10   5  70  50   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$