Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 211839
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
NW wind shift is working its way across the areas as surface low
moves e and cold front s-se. A secondary n-ne wind shift will occur
this evening and into the overnight with some low clouds possible
between 09Z-15Z. So abit cooler Sun than today. Warmer wx returns
Monday but mostly dry, exception will be slight chance PoPs Mon
INVOF Davis Mtns. A stronger cold front will move s thru the High
Plains Tue PM, possibly thru the I-20 corridor by 18Z Tue. S of the
front it will very warm 85-95, even n of the front it may still be
able to briefly climb to 85-90 along I-20. Post-frontal low clouds
possible after 21Z Tue across the nrn CWFA and breezy-windy. The
chance of rain does increase late Tue night into Wed as a shrtwv
trof moves sewd in the nw flow. Core of the precip will probably be
e or ne of the CWFA by 12Z Wed, determined by how far s the shrtwv
trof will be. PoPs will probably fluctuate between now and then. As
such Wed could be unseasonably cool! Warmer Thur, but a narrow low
level mst axis INVOF Pecos River Valley and shrtwv in nw flow aloft
all ahead of another cold front could result in a isold-sct coverage
of TSRA. We will have to watch the ECMWF because it shows a much
stronger shrtwv trof and develops an MCS Thur night/Fri morning that
moves thru the n and e CWFA. Model show large divergences thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning for the Trans Pecos including the Guadalupe
Mountains in Culberson county, the Van Horn Highway 54 corridor, and
Big Bend will remain in effect until 800 pm CDT.  RFTIs of 3 to 4 are
occurring in these areas due to breezy to windy conditions, and RHs
in the 5 to 15% range this afternoon. Conditions should improve
early this evening as winds decrease due to cooling temperatures
and slowly rising RHs. A cold front will move through late tonight
and result in fair to good recovery. Fire weather concerns should
ease Sunday with cooler high temperatures and RHs generally above
20% areawide. RHs will drop to 5 to 15% over portions of the
higher terrain both Monday and Tuesday, but wind speeds will
mainly stay below 15 mph sustained.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  72  48  80 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  74  49  84 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         52  78  53  85 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  47  74  52  85 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  69  51  80 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          42  71  46  79 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          39  72  42  82 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           46  73  50  82 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         46  73  50  82 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           46  76  50  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$



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