Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221003
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
603 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today. Upper low Monday through Wednesday. Weak
high pressure for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 AM Sunday...

A high pressure system will control the weather today. However,
the right rear of an upper level jet will provide some high
clouds. Looking at soundings, expect that dry air will mix to
the ground during the afternoon hours. Therefore, will go on
the lower side of dewpoints.

An approaching upper level low will provide some clouds tonight
with chances of showers moving into some of the southern
counties late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

A showery pattern will be the rule early next week with the
approach of an upper level system. Tuesday looks like the
wettest of days, though remaining mild throughout. Overall a
good setup for folks wanting to put down some grass seed, like
myself, and let mother nature do the watering in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

Weak high pressure builds in behind the departing upper level
system for Thursday and part of Friday. Thereafter, a cold front
will cross with showers and cooler air to follow for the
weekend. Just how cool remains uncertain with some disagreement
on the models of just how amplified this upper trof will be.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 AM Sunday...

VFR expected through the TAF period, although some VFR showers
may start moving into southwestern VA by Monday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible late Monday afternoon and Monday night
under moderate rainfall.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY



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