Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190725
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
325 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast. At the
surface a weak cold front will move through today. Rain is not
expected and POPs will remain near zero. Cloudy skies in the morning
will become partly cloudy or sunny in the afternoon. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 70s for SE Alabama and most of SW Georgia. Highs
will be in the lower 80s for SC Georgia and most Florida counties.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The weak cold front will cross through the rest of the forecast area
overnight and deep layer ridging will build over the eastern CONUS.
On Saturday, a +PV anomaly out in the Rockies will move into the
Plains, developing the next frontal system to approach our area.
Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s and lows will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The cold front that will develop Saturday will push eastward.
Scattered storms out ahead of it will be possible Saturday night,
but showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread Sunday through
Monday. The front will push through Monday into Monday night, but
models are showing wrap around moisture with this system, keeping
slight chances for rain in the forecast after the front has moved
east of the area. Highs will be in the 70s and lows will be in the
50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

MVFR CIGs are likely this morning. IFR is possible near VLD as
patchy fog develops. VFR conditions will return by mid to late
morning. Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly as a weak
cold front moves through. Rain is not expected.

&&

.MARINE...

A dry cold front will cross the coastal waters today and tonight,
with northwestern winds surging to 15 to 20 knots in its wake. Seas
will build to 3 to 5 feet Friday morning. Another system developing
to our west and enhance winds again Friday night with seas building
to 4 to 6 feet. Advisory conditions will be possible over the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will be in place through Saturday. Friday afternoon will be
the driest with RH values below 25 percent possible in parts of SW
and SC Georgia. Winds will likely remain just below critical red
flag thresholds. Red flag conditions are not expected on Friday at
this time but it should be closely monitored. High dispersion values
over 75 are expected today. Fog is likely this morning in Big Bend
FL and SC Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Our next chance at a widespread wetting rainfall will come Sunday
through Monday next week. Storm total accumulations are expected be
around 2 inches, which is not expected to aggravate our area
rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   81  51  76  51  77 /  10   0   0   0  10
Panama City   77  54  74  56  75 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        77  48  74  49  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        79  48  73  48  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  49  74  49  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    80  54  75  52  77 /  10  10   0   0  10
Apalachicola  77  52  73  56  74 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen



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