Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
AXGM70 PGUM 180921
DGTGUM
PMZ181-GUZ001>004-030200-
MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
700 PM CHST WED APR 18 2018

...RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL BY
MAY AND REMAIN IN ENSO-NEUTRAL THROUGH SUMMER WITH A TREND TOWARD CONTINUED
ENSO-NEUTRAL OR WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE FALL. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER MICRONESIA THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO.
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN RECENTLY FELL OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SOME
SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
MAY STILL OCCUR...BUT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIGRATE
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
THESE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES SHOULD HELP BRING SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS
BACK TO NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARIANA
ISLANDS AND THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS IN THE COMING DAYS. SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND
THE REST OF MICRONESIA HAS HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
EXTREMELY WET ON POHNPEI ISLAND WHERE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES CAUSED A
FATALITY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGES IN MARCH.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES THAT
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS CONTINUED FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS AND THEY REMAIN CLASSIFIED AS LONG-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY DO-L (DROUGHT
LEVEL 0 OF 4). GUAM...SAIPAN AND TINIAN HAVE IMPROVED TO MODERATE DROUGHT D1-S
(SHORT-TERM DRYNESS DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4) AND ROTA REMAINS IN MODERATE DROUGHT
SHORT-TERM DRYNESS D1-S (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4).

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
SOME SHOWERS OF MODERATE INTENSITY HAVE OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE LAST
WEEK BUT ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AT UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS
NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...
BIKINI...AILUK...WOTJE AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND MAY YET SUFFER FROM
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...BUT THE IMPROVED RAINFALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ALSO...KWAJALEIN AND EBEYE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WETTER
THAN NORMAL.

OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU... MILI...JALUIT
AND AILINGLAPLAP AND THESE LOCATIONS HAVE HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL TO AVERT ANY
DROUGHT IMPACTS.

MARIANA ISLANDS...

GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS(CNMI)...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS SO GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN HAVE IMPROVED FROM SEVERE DROUGHT TO MODERATE DROUGHT. DROUGHT REMAINS
MODERATE FOR ROTA. VERY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE FAR NORTH...OTHERWISE
PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS AND A FEW MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. RAINFALL MAY BE VARIABLE AND
SPOTTY...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT IN RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE.

IN PARTICULAR FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF WATER RESOURCES WAS GREATER AND
EARLIER IN THE YEAR THAN USUAL. VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES MAY STILL SUFFER
FROM THE DROUGHT...AND WELLS NEAR THE COAST WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
SAIPAN HAD A SEVERE WILDFIRE SEASON BUT NOW THE WILDFIRE DANGER LEVEL HAS
IMPROVED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE SHIFTING TO A MORE SEASONAL AND FAVORABLE
PATTERN. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
MICRONESIA RECENTLY. OTHERWISE...COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE
SCIENTISTS STILL INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION
TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY MAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN   FEB    MAR   NORMAL %NORMAL  APR  NORMAL %NORMAL
                 (1-31) 1-28) (1-31) (1-31) (1-31)  (1-16)(1-16) (1-16)

UTIRIK            3.56  0.61   8.50   2.44     348   1.49  1.73    86
WOTJE             4.37  2.00  10.61   2.03     522   2.38  1.99   120
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  14.46  4.20  15.55   3.56     437   2.86  3.52    81
MAJURO           15.76  8.29  22.54   7.55     299   6.31  5.46   116
SAIPAN            2.97  2.25   0.93   1.93      48   5.00  1.31   382
TINIAN            3.94  2.29   0.94   2.40      39   2.48  1.53   162
ROTA              2.24  2.39   1.55   3.05      51   5.48  2.64   208
GUAM AP           0.94  2.68   1.40   2.77      51   6.06  2.02   300
WOLEAI ATOLL     14.45  2.72   6.32   8.20      77   7.35  4.78   154
YAP              11.64  8.44  12.29   5.34     230   3.72  3.25   114

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER CAUSES ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE
THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVER REPORTS SHOWED THAT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES OCCURRED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 2 WEEKS.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THEN MORE SEASONAL AND IMPROVED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE COMING WEEKS.

RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) IS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS BY 25 APRIL.
THEN...RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS THROUGH 2 MAY.

ISLANDS SOUTH OF 10N INCLUDING MAJURO...
RAINFALL WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH AND AREAS FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN TO
WOTJE WILL RECEIVE AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT WEEK UNTIL 25 APRIL
AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 2 MAY. KWAJALEIN WILL BE WETTER
THAN WOTJE.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
RAINFALL FOR MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES UNTIL 25 APRIL AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
FROM TODAY UNTIL 2 MAY.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

.GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
SOME PATCHY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT VERY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST LONGER NORTH OF SAIPAN OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANAS. GUAM WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THAN THE OTHER
ISLANDS. GRADUALLY IMPROVING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS.

RAINFALL FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS
UNTIL 2 MAY. RAINFALL FOR ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS UNTIL 25 APRIL. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT BEST FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS THROUGH 2 MAY.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS SEEMS TO BE IMPROVING AND THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT BY THURSDAY 3 MAY 2018 OR SOONER MAY BE THE LAST
SCHEDULED. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR
YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE
FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE
CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF 9N FROM 130E TO 170E.
THIS INCLUDES SOUTHERN PALAU AND PARTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES.
SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP
FOR MORE INFORMATION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO
APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND
SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE
AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND KOROR PALAU. ALSO THE USAID
SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232
HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
(LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/SIMPSON/LANDER

$$



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