Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
110
FNUS74 KEPZ 061916
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for OAKMONT...NM-N5S
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
116 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy west winds will continue thru this afternoon with RH values
dropping into the lower teens before recovering a bit overnight.
Winds will be a bit lighter overnight from northwest before
becoming breezy from the west once again Tuesday. The combination
of wind and RH values dropping to near 10% Tuesday afternoon will
result in critical fire weather conditions once again. This trend
towards breezy and very dry conditions looks to remain in place
through Wednesday before winds diminish some for Thursday and
Friday.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 17 to 25 mph with gusts to
around 43 mph becoming northwest around 11 mph
after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 32 mph becoming northwest around 16
mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (238500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(8400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 3 6 6 6 6
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............66 60 50 47 45 42
RH..............13 14 19 21 23 26
20 ft wind......W 25 W 25 W 22 NW 17 NW 17 NW 11
20 ft wind gust.43 43 41 31 31 21
Mix hgt (ft)....7200 7200 600 600 500 500
Transport wind..W 32 W 32 NW 25 NW 25 NW 16 NW 16
Haines index....4 4 4 3 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..239 239 12 12 8 8
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 12 to 20 mph increasing to
around 26 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 23 mph increasing to around 33 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (45200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (110100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (221900
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........5 5 0 1 1 2
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............40 47 61 64 67 69
RH..............28 23 14 12 11 9
20 ft wind......NW 12 NW 12 W 15 W 20 W 20 W 26
20 ft wind gust.20 20 25 31 31 39
Mix hgt (ft)....2700 2700 4700 4700 6500 6500
Transport wind..NW 16 NW 16 W 23 W 23 W 33 W 33
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..45 45 110 110 222 222
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to
around 44 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 26 to 33 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (219300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(15700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........5 7 6 6
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............70 57 52 48
RH..............9 14 18 21
20 FT wind......W 25G41 W 23G44 W 24G43 W 20G40
Mix hgt (ft)....6500 6500 700 600
Transport wind..W 33 W 33 W 30 W 26
Haines index....5 5 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..219 219 17 16
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 18 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......9400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 31 mph increasing to around 35 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (75500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(190200 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........5 1 1
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............43 60 69
RH..............25 17 13
20 FT wind......W 18G31 W 21G35 W 23G38
Mix hgt (ft)....3000 6800 9400
Transport wind..W 25 W 31 W 35
Haines index....3 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..76 190 289
Ventrate Cat....GOOD EXNT EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 12 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. East
winds around 14 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. East winds around 12 mph.
$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...NM-ADC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2413277.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov