Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FNUS73 KLSX 190803
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Mark Twain Lake...U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Northwest winds will gradually veer and become northerly to
northeasterly during the day today, but wind speeds and gusts
will be much lower than they were yesterday. Winds will
continue to veer overnight and will be easterly on Friday.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and tonight. Frost
is also possible tonight. Highs on Friday will be around 60
degrees at the burn site. The minimum afternoon relative
humidity will be around 30 percent today and is expected to be
lower tomorrow (closer to 25 percent) due to the warmer daytime
temperatures.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 9 mph.
Eye level winds.....Adjustment factor of 0.4 for unsheltered fuels.
                    North winds 2-4 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1900 ft at ignition time of 1000AM...4400 ft AGL
                    at max heating.
Transport winds.....North around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (8340 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........100    73     45     17     7      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............32     38     45     50     54     55
RH..............88     76     55     46     38     35
20 ft wind......NW 7   N 9    N 9    N 8    N 8    N 7
20 ft wind gust.10     12     16     15     12     11

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 33.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Eye level winds.....Adjustment factor of 0.4 for unsheltered fuels.
                    Northeast winds 2-3 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Adjustment factor of 0.4 for unsheltered fuels.
                    Light winds becoming east 2-4 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (6500 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$
Forecaster...Kanofsky
Requested by...Allen Mehrer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806980.0/LSX



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