Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FNUS71 KLWX 262109
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Castle...Monogahela NF
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
509 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1800 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low pressure will approach the area tonight before passing through
Friday. A period of soaking rain is expected late tonight through
Friday morning ahead of the low. Drier conditions will gradually
return Friday afternoon through Friday night behind the departing
low.

A cold front will pass through the area Saturday and high pressure
will return for Sunday and Monday with dry and cool conditions for
this time of year. The high will move offshore during the middle
portion of next week and a southwest flow will cause a big warmup
in temperatures.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain overspreading the
                    area after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 90 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......3600-5300 ft AGL decreasing to 1100-2700 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (7700-21200 knot-ft).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........50     100    100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
CWR.............0      20     20     40     90     90
TEMP............64     59     55     52     50     48
RH..............40     49     57     63     68     77
20 FT WIND......W 3    NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   N 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      4      5      4             4
MIX HGT (FT)....5300   4500   2700   1600   1600   1200
MIXNG WIND......SW 5   S 5    SE 7   E 9    E 9    NE 8
VRATE KT-FT/100021     18     16     13     13     8

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog in
                    the morning. Rain in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................90 percent decreasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100-2300 ft AGL increasing to 6200-7100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 10 mph shifting to the west 14
                    to 16 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (6700-44900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (74600 knot-ft) early in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........96     100    100    98     91     72
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............90     70     70     40     40     40
TEMP............47     49     55     59     61     62
RH..............79     80     72     64     60     56
20 FT WIND......N 3    N 2    N 3    NW 3   NW 4   W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.4                    5      6      7
MIX HGT (FT)....1100   1300   1700   3500   6200   7100
MIXNG WIND......NE 8   N 8    NW 5   NW 6   W 14   W 16
VRATE KT-FT/10008      9      7      18     75     100

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......4400-6300 ft AGL decreasing to 2000-3700 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (41000-88300 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to good (31600 knot-ft) after
                    midnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........61     44     32     28     26     32
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
CWR.............40     20     20     10     10     10
TEMP............60     56     53     50     48     47
RH..............58     64     69     71     74     74
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 4    W 4    W 4    SW 3   SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.7      6      6      6      6      7
MIX HGT (FT)....6300   4400   3100   2200   2000   2500
MIXNG WIND......W 16   W 16   W 17   W 18   W 18   W 18
VRATE KT-FT/100088     62     46     35     32     39

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Peter To
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1808016.0/LWX



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