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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 161025
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Wilna RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
625 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny skies are expected today with good mixing. Minimum RH
values will be around 30 percent this afternoon with northeast
winds becoming east then southeast. Isolated showers are again possible
tonight and Wednesday before a stronger cold front crosses the
area towards the end of the week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 12 mph shifting to the east
                    around 2 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    shifting to the south 3 to 5 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (24600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................11 to 37.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........14  8   14  19  25  28  31  33  31  28  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  59  62  63  66  69  70  71  72  73  71
RH..............57  55  48  43  37  33  32  31  31  31  34
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.11  11  9   9   7   7   7   7   7   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  S
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  12  10  8   5   2   2   3   5
LVORI...........3   3   2   2   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............12  11  20  29  37  32  22  14  12  14  20
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   6   13  20  25  21  15  10  8   10  15
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 21.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  32  36  40  44  47  51  55  58  63  67  72
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20
Temp............70  68  65  62  60  59  58  57  56  56  55  54
RH..............36  39  43  46  49  49  51  53  55  57  64  69
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   9   9   9   9   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.7   9   10  12  12  10  9   7   6   5   3   3
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
ADI.............21  4   5   5   8   7   6   5   4   3   2   2
Haines index....2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15  12  4   5   5   4   4   3   2   2   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning and early
                    afternoon, then chance of rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 12 mph increasing to 10 to 13
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (23400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 33.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........77     86     91     94     95     89
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     30     30
Temp............53     55     62     68     70     73
RH..............77     86     75     68     68     62
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 5   SE 6   SE 6   SE 6   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.7      7      9      9      9      11
Mix hgt (ft)....500    700    1100   1600   2100   1900
Transport wind..SE 3   SE 6   SE 10  SE 13  SE 13  E 12
LVORI...........4      5      4      3      3      2
ADI.............2      4      14     26     33     28
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2      4      10     18     23     20
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...IYER
Requested by...Frank Simmons
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411071.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL frank_simmons@fws.gov