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000
FXUS61 KALY 200740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, clouds will break for
some sun today, with a breezy afternoon and a few lingering showers
or sprinkles.  Cooler and drier weather will return for Sunday and
Monday, with a good deal of sun each day and breezy conditions.
Milder temperatures will briefly return for Tuesday before another
front returns chilly weather to the region for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM EDT...Surface cold front continues to slowly
approach the area from the west. The boundary is just west of
the CWA over central New York at this time and it will continue
to push eastward across our area for the early morning hours.

IR satellite imagery continues to show widespread clouds over
the area and upstream imagery suggests these clouds will
continue to remain over the area into the morning hours, as the
surface boundary is only slowly pushing eastward. It may take
until the mid to late morning hours for the lower clouds to have
fully pushed east of the area into New England.

Radar imagery shows mainly just some spotty light showers. One
area of organized showers is impacting southern areas into the
Berkshires and NW CT, while another light batch is over the
Adirondacks and approaching the Mohawk Valley. The best chance
for showers will be over the next few hours as the front pushes
into the area. Rainfall will be fairly spotty, but light in
intensity. Most areas will see under a tenth of an inch of
rainfall, although some localized totals up to a quarter of an
inch are possible across western New England.

Some clearing will be occurring for late this morning and
partial sunshine is expected for this afternoon. With the upper
level trough still overhead, some clouds are still expected
thanks to the cyclonic flow in place and a few spotty light
showers or sprinkles are expected to develop this afternoon as
well. This mainly looks to impact northern and high terrain
areas, but any shower will be very brief and fairly light.

Winds will be southerly ahead of the front, with some gusty
conditions for north-south valleys (such as the Hudson Valley
and Capital Region). Winds will become westerly behind the
front. There may be a lull in the winds for the late morning or
early afternoon, but they will probably pick up again for the
mid to late afternoon hours within the better mixing behind the
departing front. Some westerly gusts up to 25 mph are possible
for late today, especially in the Mohawk Valley and Capital
Region.   After early morning temps in the mid 40s to low 50s,
they should rise behind the front into the 50s to low 60s across
most of the area. The mildest temps will be in the mid Hudson
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry and quiet weather is expected through the short term
period. The upper level flow will be flat for tonight behind the
departing shortwave, although another disturbance will be
passing north of the area for Sunday into Monday. While this
will keep a broad trough over the area with lower heights and
cooler temps aloft, the main upper forcing will be well north of
the area and moisture is lacking for Sunday into Monday.
Because of this, no precip is expected across the area for
Sunday into Monday. While there will be some clouds around on
Sunday, skies look fairly sunny for Monday.

After temps tonight in the 30s, highs on Sunday look below
normal with afternoon temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another
chilly night in expected on Sunday night with 20s and 30s as
well. Daytime temps will once again only be in the 40s and 50s
on Monday, despite a good deal of sunshine. Lows will be
continued chilly on Monday night in the mid 20s to low 30s with
widespread frost.

As is typical for this time of year (pre-greenup), deep daytime
mixing and a lack of leaves on the trees will allow for dry
afternoons with low RH and breezy conditions. See the Fire
Weather section below for more details, but dry and breezy
conditions are anticipated for both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will push off to the east on Tuesday as
southerly return flow advects milder air into the region. Highs on
Tuesday will rebound into the 50s and 60s, closer to normal values.
Clouds will increase and thicken later in the day as an upper-level
trough and low pressure system approach from the west. There remains
some timing and track differences with this system and also with how
much cold air dives down from Canada in its wake. Regardless, shower
chances will increase spanning Tuesday night and Wednesday. If the
cold front crosses during the time of peak heating on Wednesday, a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. The clouds and showers
will hold temperatures down into the 40s and 50s on Wednesday.
Enough cold air may advance behind the cold front that some
snowflakes could mix in across higher elevations before
precipitation begins tapering off Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday
night could fall to or below freezing in many areas, including the
valleys. While a few isolated rain/snow showers remain possible on
Thursday, building upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
should bring a drying trend to end the week with continued below
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...A pair of cold fronts will cross the TAF sites
through the upcoming TAF period. The first front will move through
early this morning and is only producing spotty, light rain showers
and sprinkles. No vsby restrictions are expected with these showers.
MVFR cigs will be common for the remainder of the overnight (except
IFR at KPSF) before cigs lift to VFR after the cold frontal passage
(09-13z/Sat).

The second cold front will push through Saturday afternoon. VFR cigs
will occur on Saturday with developing stratocu around 5-7 kft. Some
isolated to scattered showers are possible along and just behind the
front (between 18z/Sat and 00z/Sun) and maintained VCSH in the TAFs
until confidence in timing and location of showers becomes more
clear. Showers will end and clouds will quickly dissipate giving way
to clear/mostly clear conditions after 00z/Sun.

Wind will remain south to southwesterly through the remainder of the
overnight at 5 to 10 kt. A few gusts to around 20 kt are expected at
KALB. Wind will gradually shift to the west Saturday morning and
become gusty in the afternoon and evening with sustained winds 10-20
kt with a few gusts approaching 30 kt (especially KALB/KPSF).

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy weather will be in place across the region for
Sunday through Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool
side for Sunday and Monday, valley areas should be back into the
60s by Tuesday. There will be some cloud cover for Sunday,
although Monday looks fairly sunny. After a sunny morning on
Tuesday, some clouds will increase by later in the day. RH
values may be as low as 30 percent during the afternoon hours,
although there should be a recovery during the overnight hours.

Winds will be westerly on Sunday and Monday with some gusts up
to 25 mph in the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday
could gust as high as 30 mph late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis