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000
FXUS61 KALY 200255
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1055 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain
showers to the region overnight. Behind the front, breezy and cool
conditions are expected for Saturday with partly sunny conditions
and isolated showers.  It will remain mostly dry Sunday into Monday
with partly sunny skies, but temperatures will continue to be a
little below average for late April.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1053 PM EDT, KENX radar has scattered showers
ahead of the cold front over the western Adirondacks. These will
continue to move to the east southeast across the forecast
area. Modest low-level convergence and isentropic lift is
occurring ahead the cold front. A closed upper-level low is
situated over Ontario north of a jet streak across the Midwest.
The best upper-level forcing for ascent is displaced well to the
northwest of the Albany CWA across portions of southern Quebec
within the poleward exit region of the aforementioned jet.

The isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue
through the early morning hours from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area. However, ample low- level moisture
will support widespread clouds. This thinking is supported by
numerous CAMs.

The winds will shift from the south to the southwest or west with
the frontal passage at 10 to 15 mph. The widespread cloud
coverage will limit cooling with lows expected to be in the
mid/upper 30s over the western Dacks to upper 40s across the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Saturday, sky cover will gradually improve through the
morning hours, as the cold front continues to move east.
However, skies won`t clear out completely, as the upper level
trough and cold pool move overhead. The afternoon will likely
see increasing clouds and some isolated showers as the cooling
temps aloft and cyclonic flow promote the development of
cu/stratocu. While most areas will be dry on Saturday, a few
pop-up showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out by Saturday
afternoon, especially over northern areas. Some pea size hail
will be possible from any shower as a -30C cold pool drifts
across the northern part of the area. Temps will be a little
below normal thanks to the upper level cold pool in place. With
the decent mixing, winds will be gusty and breezy by Saturday
afternoon, with some westerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. It
will remain a little breezy into Saturday night with some
lingering clouds, although it should be dry with no precip
across the area.

Dry weather is expected to continue for Sunday into Sunday
night. Upper level trough will continue to be located over the
Northeastern US, although the core of the cold pool will remain
north of the area over Quebec. Another frontal boundary will be
passing across the area, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air,
but this moisture-starved front won`t be producing any precip
for our area. As a result, skies will be mostly clear for Sunday
into Sunday night, although it will on the cooler side. It will
be breezy once again on Sunday, especially during the afternoon
and early evening with gusts around 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly fair weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as the
forecast area is forecast to be under weak upper ridging.
Temperatures on Monday look to start cold, but rise to near
normal. On Tuesday, heights rise and look to be be slightly
above normal over the southeastern part of the area by
afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday should be near to slightly
above normal depending on sunshine. By Wednesday, the next upper
trough starts to cross the region with a strong cold front
which will likely bring rain showers to the area. Rain showers
could end as snow showers Wednesday night across the high
terrain as temperatures are forecast to be well below normal
behind the front. Cold weather and some possible mountain snow
showers linger into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z/Sunday...A cold front is approaching the TAF sites
with broken bands of showers. Expect VFR conditions with cigs
3.5-5 kft AGL to lower to MVFR levels initially at KGFL/KALB
between 00Z-03Z/SAT with the showers, and then to expand across
to KPSF/KPOU 03Z-06Z/SAT. Widespread MVFR conditions with cigs
1.5-3.0 kft AGL will continue until 11Z-13Z/SAT, when cigs will
rise to VFR levels. We did not include IFR cigs at KPSF/KPOU at
this time due to low confidence. Some showers may linger south
of KALB after 06Z/SAT.

The upper level trough with bring stratocu/cumulus and some mid
level clouds in the late morning into the afternoon with the
lower bases in the 5-6 kft AGL range. Some isolated to
scattered showers are possible too and we included VCSH groups
for the possibility especially from KALB/KPSF northward.
However, VFR conditions are expected for the late morning into
the afternoon.

Winds will be south to southeast 7-15 KT ahead of the front with
some gusts around 25 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds will shift to
the west to southwest in the early morning at 5-10 KT and the
increase from the west/northwest at 12-18 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon with some gusts 25-30 KT in the afternoon at
all the TAF sites.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday to Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of
SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Belkin/Wasula
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Wasula