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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201953
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

With some clearing this afternoon across the central and northern
Panhandles, we bumped temperatures up a bit, given that the main
axis of moisture will likely stay to the south. Areas south of
I-40 may see some isolated showers/storms this evening, but it`s
not looking very favorable based on current radar. Clouds are
expected to increase again tonight and this will help keep
temperatures from dropping below freezing tonight. As a result,
the Freeze Watch has been cancelled for the northern Panhandles.
There is the possibility for some isolated showers tonight to
track across the Panhandles as the main trough axis moves through.
On the back side of this trough we can expect cool, but slightly
warmer temperatures as we transition to a building ridge of high
pressure. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the 60s across
the area, with overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Monday and Tuesday will be interesting days temperature wise, as
central Texas will still be under the influence of some lingering
cooler air from the previous system and therefore highs will push
into the lower to mid 70s across the south. However, the northern
Panhandles are expected to be in the 80s as a weather system to
the north begins to break down the ridge of high pressure and will
channel that warmer air across the central CONUS. On Tuesday that
weather system will be further south and will suppress the warmer
air to the southern Panhandles via a cold front. So now we`ll
have 80s across the south and 70s across the north. We`ll also
have a chance a showers and storms given the the front will be
stalled across the central Panhandles during peak heating. Right
now pops are limited on Tuesday, but if the trend continues than
we could see an uptick in pops across the area. Precipitation
chances do not look as good on Wednesday as cool more stable
air may prevail with the front through the Panhandles. Highs on
Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s.

Thursday will be the day to watch, as we do have the next weather
system approaching the area "currently" with a negative tilt. This
will give a better chance a moisture return with higher dewpoints
and a potential dryline setup across the central Panhandles. The
position of this dryline could still be anywhere across the
Panhandle, but would note if the trough holds the negative tilt,
then there`s a better chance that this will result in at least
some severe weather, as a more neutral to positive tilt will be
less favorable and likely lead to a more progressive Fire Weather
scenario.

For Friday...As Thursday`s system exits another weather system
will be close behind with warmer air pushing back to the
Panhandles. This system is taking more of a neutral tilt, and
while severe weather will still be possible with this system, the
setup would be more supportive of Fire Weather.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all TAF sites over the next
24 hours. Possible MVFR cigs at KAMA with isolated rain showers
possible over the next 3 to 9 hours. Otherwise, breezy winds
15-25kts out of the east to southwest. Winds will come down
around 10kts after 03z tonight. Late in the TAF period low clouds
around 3kft agl will be possible at terminals, but not enough
confidence to go into MVFR yet.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                39  58  39  77 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  36  62  39  81 /  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              33  62  39  82 /  30  10   0  10
Borger TX                  40  63  41  82 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              39  62  39  82 /  20  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  39  58  37  76 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               40  58  39  73 /  30   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 33  59  36  81 /  30   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  34  61  38  82 /  30  10   0   0
Hereford TX                38  59  38  77 /  20   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                38  61  40  77 /  20  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   39  59  40  77 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                41  60  39  72 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              42  60  39  72 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89