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000
FXUS63 KAPX 241449
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1049 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather today, near record cold temperatures possible
  tonight.

- Temperatures turn warmer Friday into the weekend.

- Active weather this weekend with a chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Primary disturbance slipping to our east attm...with lingering
moisture departing southward as well. Lingering surface trough in
our vicinity...with weak cold advection aloft...as well as weak PV
niblets to our northwest...though ridging to our west is attempting
to build eastward. More noteworthy is anomalously dry air slipping
into the Great Lakes from the north/northeast this morning...with
pwats around 0.22 on our morning sounding hinting toward the 10th
percentile/low end of climo...as high pressure oozes southward into
the Upper Great Lakes...blocked by a BCZ stretching from the Lower
Great Lakes down through the OH Valley, back to a low over MN, and
up to an occluded low in eastern Saskatchewan on warm advection with
the next system. Not surprisingly, here in northern Michigan,
despite mixing and continued overlake instability with this cold air
mass, most all of the clouds, even lake-based ones, are quickly
diminishing attm. Entire sounding profile this morning was below
freezing.

Today...expecting continued north/northeasterly flow as high
pressure settles in through the day. Anticipate continued drying
with little in the way of clouds...and not a ton of temperature
recovery from where we currently hang in the upper 20s to mid 30s as
of 15z... as temps aloft are only supportive of highs reaching into
the 40s to maybe around 50 where better downsloping could aid in
maximizing highs through the Manistee River valley from Wexford into
Manistee counties...and maybe into the Saginaw Bay counties. Winds
expected to diminish through the day as well, which, as dewpoints
tumble and RHs fall into the 20s and teens this afternoon...should
theoretically (maybe) help mitigate some fire weather concerns,
particularly noting that we also just had a tenth to quarter inch of
rain. Expecting things to remain chilly overnight, with potential to
reach record lows overnight under this high pressure, though a quick
peek at model soundings suggests we may not totally decouple in some
spots? Will be taking a closer look at this for the afternoon
package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing draped across the Great Lakes will continue to quickly
slide southeast of the region today as ridging works across the
central CONUS. Subsidence provided aloft will expansive surface high
pressure from southern Canada down into the Great Lakes and
northeast CONUS today into Thursday.

Forecast Details:

Light flurries/mist is expected to continue over the next few hours
before ending by mid-morning as aforementioned high pressure builds
in. Otherwise, precip-free weather and sunny/clear skies are
expected through tonight. Relief from recent gusty winds will arrive
today as winds look diminish this afternoon into tonight as high
pressure gets centered overhead. Despite sunny skies, cool
temperatures are in store for today as most places stay in the 40s --
and even upper 30s near the lakeshores for daytime highs. Calm winds
and clear skies will spell a cold night ahead with lows dipping well
into the upper teens and 20s across northern Michigan -- potentially
challenging or breaking daily record low temperatures for some
sites. Readings in the low to mid teens cannot be ruled out across
the typical coldest low-lying interior areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Cool northwest flow aloft on Wednesday behind a departing trough
axis with below average daytime temperatures. Rapid moderation
expected thereafter for the end of the week as ridging aloft builds
overhead in response to a deep upper low in the Central Plains.
Upper low and attendant sfc cyclone then move northeast into the
Upper Midwest resulting in warm, moist advection across northern
Michigan. Consequently, rain showers, and thunderstorms, are likely
this weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

System departs to the east Wednesday with cooler, below average
temperatures expected (especially during the morning hours when wind
chills will be in the 10s and 20s). Atmosphere will quickly rebound,
however, as heights rise and ridging builds into the area late week.
Temperatures will rise into the 50s and 60s once more during this
time. Warm temperatures will remain through the weekend due to
breezy southerly sfc winds and continued above normal height
anomalies aloft.

A series of potent, compact upper lows will advect from the C Plains
to the Upper Midwest Friday into this weekend. Consequently, warm,
moist advection is anticipated with a mix of showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday night through the weekend (in addition
to breezy winds). Current guidance suggests the best period for
thunderstorm activity will be Saturday as dewpoints surge into the
50s and perhaps low 60s fostering instability values ~500-1000j/kg
(GFS/CMC ENS guidance shows 50%+ chance for 500j/kg). As the upper
level features move to the west of the region, robust southwest flow
overspreads northern Michgian. Progged GFS/CMC soundings are
quite impressive through the lower to middle troposphere with
40-50kts around 850 mb and vicinity. It does appear there will
be showers earlier in the day on Saturday and so the degree of
afternoon instability will potentially be in question (which is
usually an issue for northern Michigan) but the potential for
robust thunderstorms is at least hinted at given the current
progged pattern. As a reference, CSU-MLP (Colorado State
University Machine Learning Probabilities) do(es) suggest the
potential for severe weather across northern Michigan on
Saturday with a 5-15% probability (albeit this run was from
Sunday evening, latest data is blank for some reason). That
being said, we`ll take our time and monitor this in the coming
days, the finer details will certainly change.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGs may linger at TVC, APN, and MBL for another hour or two,
but are expected to mix out as increasingly dry air continues to
work into the region. Aside from this, VFR conditions are
anticipated through the duration of the issuance period. Some gusty
NNE winds this morning will gradually taper off this afternoon,
becoming calm tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC