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000
FXUS64 KBMX 161247
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
747 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2024

This AM, satellite is indicating ample moisture streaming into AL
from the W by way of mid/upper moisture. This is obscuring low
stratus/fog across the far S and some isolated river/valley
moisture. May need to issue a dense fog advisory in the far SRN
counties for this morning. Otherwise, surface ridging is centered
just off the coast of the SE US with SRLY flow in the lower levels
into AL. This will continue to be the case through the short
term. In the upper levels, a low is present over the lee of the
Rocky Mountains near E CO. This low is expected to swing to the E
and NE toward the Great Lakes through the short term. Across C AL,
we will have a zonal to WSW flow in the upper levels as the low
progresses, with some perturbations traversing through this flow.
We should see one more rain free day for today as low level
moisture continues to increase. Rain chances return late tonight
toward sunrise in the NW. Most rain chances do hold off until
during the day Wed with the best chances in the NRN half to 2/3 of
C AL closer to the main system. Thunderstorms are expected as we
heat up during the day, however, storms are expected to remain
sub-severe with the better energy/instability to stay well to the N.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2024

The subtropical jet will bring mostly zonal 500 mb flow to the
region for Thursday through Sunday. This will correspond with a
period of unsettled weather conditions as embedded shortwaves
impact the region. The first disturbance is expected to move
across the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, inducing modest
southwesterly flow at 850 mb. As the associated weak front
approaches from the northwest, scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms could affect our northern half Thursday night into
Friday.

The split flow pattern and associated upper-level confluence will
support strong high pressure from western Canada southward into
the Plains and Southeast CONUS. This shallow cool airmass will
move southward into Alabama on Saturday ahead of a shortwave
moving out of Texas. As a result, isentropic lift is expected to
overspread the region over the weekend, potentially leading to
widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms.

With the passage of the shortwave trough, dry conditions should
return for Monday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2024

IFR and below cigs have been difficult this AM with guidance and
satellite not much help. Cigs have progressed further NWD than
first thought but should start to improve over the next few
hours. IFR and below cigs/vsbys will be possible through mid
morning with lots of low level moisture. All sites should be VFR
by ~ 16z. Satellite is not much help to see low stratus and fog
development and movement with lots of mid/high cloudiness
streaming across AL from the W with upper disturbances. Low level
moisture will increase today/tonight ahead of next rain system for
Wed with SRLY winds expected.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue today with minimum RH values 25-35%
east of I-65, increasing to 40-50% west of I-65. 20 ft winds will be
southerly and sustained at 8-12 mph. Some rain chances will move
into the area on Wednesday, though forecast amounts are light and
mainly for areas along and north of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  62  79  60 /   0  10  50  10
Anniston    83  61  80  61 /   0  10  30  10
Birmingham  83  63  78  62 /   0  10  50  10
Tuscaloosa  83  62  80  63 /   0  10  40  10
Calera      81  61  79  62 /   0   0  30  10
Auburn      81  62  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  83  59  83  63 /   0   0  10  10
Troy        84  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Barbour-Pike.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08