Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 272314 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
614 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure will remain in control as ridging builds in from the
west. This will result in quiet short term weather. Skies will be
mostly clear tonight with light winds. Patchy, light fog may develop
across some inland and low lying areas late tonight, but the model
signal is not strong, and no fog is being carried in the present
weather grids. Low temps tonight will be mainly in the 50s, warming
to near 60 Thursday night. High temps on Thursday will be in the
lower to mid 80s with a few low clouds. The forecasted temps will
start out slightly cooler than normal but will trend to near normal
after tonight, especially Thursday into Thursday night as southeast
winds steady up. Rip current risk will stay moderate as wave heights
are still in that range and we are still close to a full moon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Upper level ridging looks to strengthen over the weekend across
the central US. At the same time, a deepening upper level trough
off the west coast will gradually make its way to the desert
southwest by Monday.

At the surface, low pressure developing over the Central Plains
will interact with a high pressure system over southeastern US and
northern Gulf, resulting in tightening pressure gradients across
eastern Texas. This will likely support stronger winds on Friday,
possibly necessitating Wind Advisories for eastern portions of
Deep South Texas.

As the upper level trough approaches on Monday, another surface
low looks to develop over the central plains. This will again
support tightening pressure gradients and stronger winds Monday,
possibly necessitating Wind Advisories for portions of Deep South
Texas. As the surface low moves further east, a cold front
associated with that system will drop south, likely moving through
Deep South Texas Tuesday. Drier air and stronger winds behind the
front could combine to create elevated fire weather conditions
Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures look to steadily increase this weekend. High
temperatures across most of Deep South Texas in will be in the low
to mid 80s Friday, climbing to the mid 90s to around 100 by
Monday. Temperatures only look to reach the low to mid 90s Tuesday
with the passage of the cold front, and return to the low to mid
80s Wednesday. Likewise low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
Friday night look to climb to the low 70s by Monday night, before
falling back to the low to mid 60s behind the front Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
mostly clear skies and easterly winds turning southeasterly into
early Thursday and breezy Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...High pressure will continue to
dominate. Moderate to fresh winds this evening will become light
southeast late tonight. Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas
will prevail on Thursday with winds becoming moderate to fresh.
Thursday night. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times.

Friday through next Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the
Northern Gulf will support southeasterly to southerly winds
through the weekend. Tightening pressure gradients on Friday will
likely promote stronger winds along the Laguna Madre and coastal
Gulf waters Friday afternoon, likely necessitating Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories.
Elevated winds look to continue over the weekend, possibly
requiring additional Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines
or Small Craft Advisories, mainly in the afternoons. Tightening
pressure gradients again on Monday will likely support stronger
winds through the day, possibly requiring a low end Small Craft
Advisory. The passage of a cold front on Tuesday will bring a
northerly wind shift, with stronger winds behind the front
potentially requiring additional Small Craft Advisories Tuesday
night. Predominately moderate seas look to persist through the
period, with higher seas building briefly Friday and Monday in the
presence of stronger winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             56  80  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               53  83  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 55  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         53  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      63  73  67  74 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     56  78  64  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...56-Hallman


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