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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181435
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1035 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will produce occasional showers across
the North Country today, along with cool temperatures. Highs
will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region. More
scattered showers are anticipated for Friday and again on
Saturday, before drier air returns for Sunday into early next
week, along with near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1032 AM EDT Thursday...Radar is showing the axis of rain
showers bending a bit, moving slightly quicker through the
forecast area than anticipated, but overall the forecast is on
track, only minor tweaks to chance of precip needed.
Temperatures are rising a touch quicker than forecast as well,
but much will depend on where and when those showers arrive,
which could slow the upward curve of temperatures. Breezy wind
gusts 15-30 mph are also being reported across the forecast
area.

Previous discussion below:
Its been a challenge for precip to reach our fa this morning,
as radar trends show bands of light rain rotating toward our
region, but dissipating or falling apart. Finally a few NY State
Meso sites have measured a few hundredths, as saturation of the
llvls continues to occur. Water vapor shows mid/upper lvl trof
axis acrs western NY, along with sharp sfc convergence line. As
this boundary and dynamics aloft arrive, along with slightly
better moisture profiles, expect areal coverage of showers to
increase this morning and spread into the CPV by noon and
continue to push northeast during the aftn hours. Have continued
the trend of increasing pops with values near 100% along and
west of the CPV and mostly chc/likely for central/northern VT
this aftn. QPF amounts are challenging with bands of precip and
lingering dry air from leftover ridge, but have amounts mostly
in the 0.10 to 0.30 range, with less over the NEK. As noted by
previous fcster 925mb winds of 30 to 40 knots this morning will
produce localized gusts 25 to 35 mph along favorable downslope
areas of the northern Dacks and western slopes of the Greens.
Have already seen values near 30 mph this morning at Rutland. As
precip arrives, bl should stabilize and winds become lighter by
mid/late morning. Temps are challenging as se downslope has
resulted in some warming with readings in the mid/upper 40s,
while others places are in the mid 30s. Thinking mostly mid 40s
to mid 50s with coolest values from northern Dacks into
central/southern VT.

Tonight is quiet with any lingering precip shifting east of our
cwa. Lows range from the mid 30s to lower/mid 40s. Friday, low
level southerly jet increases ahead of next boundary, with gusts
25 to 35 mph possible, especially CPV and parts of northern
NY/VT. If mixing is slightly better than anticipated, a few
gusts up to 40 mph wl be possible associated with core of 925mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots developing btwn 18z-00z. Given the
southwest orientation of the 850mb wind fields, expect some
downslope shadowing of precip on Fri aftn acrs the CPV. Have chc
to low likely pops expanding from west to east ahead of next
boundary and associated moisture axis and s/w energy. Temps warm
into the mid 50s to lower 60s on Friday as warmer 925mb temps
surge northward on breezy southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Thursday...Somewhat unsettled weather will continue
heading into the weekend as as a cold front pushes eastward across
the region Friday night into Saturday, bringing additional chances
for precipitation. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light given
a lack of deep moisture. Behind the frontal boundary, brisk winds
and cooler temperatures are in store for Saturday, with wind gusts
generally between 20 to 30 mph. Another shortwave will swing through
during the day on Saturday, bringing additional chances for showers,
with the greatest chances near the international border. The lack of
available moisture will limit the potential for measurable
precipitation with this system, especially with some drier air at
the surface to overcome. Daytime highs will be on the cool, with
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Thursday...Several shortwave disturbances look to
traverse across the region through the weekend as we head into the
new work week. These disturbances look to be lacking moisture, which
will limit any additional chances for measurable precipitation.
Early next week, weak ridging looks to build into the region,
bringing another period of mostly dry weather and some sun.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool, with daytime highs warming
into the 50s to low 60s and overnight lows dropping into the 30s to
low 40s. By mid-week another trough looks to bring more widespread
precipitation to the region, with greater moisture available.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Radar is showing a band of light rain
showers from MSS to SLK to RUT line with cigs and vis lowering
to mvfr. As this band of rain continues to slowly move
northeast, expect lowering cigs/vis at PBG/BTV and MPV by mid
morning with intervals of MVFR conditions expected. A brief
period of IFR cigs/vis is possible in the heavier returns at
MSS/SLK this morning, but confidence is too low for placement in
tafs attm. Localized gusty southeast winds of 20 to 30 knots is
possible at RUT/BTV before the rain arrives, otherwise winds
are mostly in the 10 to 20 knot range, becoming lighter during
the aftn hours.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber