Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...
This is the eighth flood outlook for the 2024 winter/spring flood
season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National
Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont to summarize the flood
potential due to snowmelt and break up/formation of river ice
across northern and central Vermont and northern New York. This
outlook is valid for the two week period from April 11 to 25,
2024.

...Overview...
The potential for open water flooding through late April is below
normal across the St Lawrence Valley and northwestern
Adirondacks. The rest of the area, the open water flooding threat
is near normal. The threat for flooding due to ice jams has passed
for the 2023-2024 season, since no river ice exists across the
region.

Much of the region gained and then lost snow over the last 2
weeks. The first week of April featured wetter than normal
conditions, and temperatures slightly above seasonal normals.

The following is a summary of the conditions by region as of
Thursday morning, April 11, 2024:

...St Lawrence Valley...
.Flood Risk...Below normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, none
.Streamflows...Normal to below normal
.Soil state...Normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal
.River Ice...None

...Northern Adirondacks...
.Flood Risk...Below normal west, normal east
.Snow Cover...Below normal, little snow below 2000 ft, 10 to 20
inches above 2000 ft, 3+ ft at summit levels
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, little below 2000 ft, 1-3
inches above 2000 ft, locally more at summit level
.Streamflows...Normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal
.River Ice...None

...Champlain Valley...
.Flood Risk...Normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, none
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal, except below normal along
the international border
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal
.River Ice...None

...Central/northern Green Mountains and Upper CT River Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below to locally near normal. Values 6 to 18 inches
mid-terrain, 15 to 30 inches in higher elevations, locally 3+ feet
at summit level
.Water Equivalent...Below normal to locally near normal. Half
inch to 2 inches mid-terrain, 2 to 5 inches in higher summits
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Normal to above normal
.River Ice...None

...Southern VT and the adjacent Connecticut River Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal to locally near normal. Values 6 to 18
inches mid-terrain, 15 to 30 inches in higher elevations, locally
3+ feet at summit level
.Water Equivalent...Below normal to locally near normal. Half
inch to 2 inches mid-terrain, 2 to 5 inches in higher summits
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Normal to above normal
.River Ice...None

..Snow Depths and Water Equivalent...
A slow moving low pressure system April 3rd-5th brought 1-2+ feet
of snow to the region. A warming trend following this system, as
well as a rain storm this week, has eaten away at that snow pack
and we`re back down to where we started or lower than a couple
of weeks ago.

...River and River Ice Conditions...
Daily and multi-day averaged streamflows remain at or above
normal across the entire region, except for some parts of the St
Lawrence valley and extreme northern Vermont. This is indicative
of residual interflow and runoff from recent precipitation, and
some surface recharge through snowmelt in the lower elevations.

No river ice exists across all of Vermont and northern New York.

...Soil Moisture and Groundwater Conditions...
Moist soil conditions have persisted across the region over the
past two weeks. Some of the moist near-surface readings have
occurred due to recent snowmelt recharge and rainfall. This is
supported by the latest groundwater data from the United States
Geological Survey showing most values ranging through the mid to
upper quartiles.

...Weather Outlook...
The first few days of the outlook period will be wet, as a rain
system crosses our area through early Saturday. After this system,
our weather will remain active with several weaker systems moving
across the region and brining mainly just some light rainfall.

The official National Weather Service 6 to 10 Day Outlook for
April 16-20 matches the above thinking, calling for above normal
precipitation and above normal temperatures.

...Summary...
Based on the meteorological and hydrological information
discussed above, the potential for open water flooding over the
next two weeks is below normal for the St. Lawrence Valley of New
York and northwestern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, across the
northeastern Adirondacks, central and northern Vermont including
the entire Champlain Valley and southern Vermont east of the
Green Mountains, the open water flooding threat is normal. The
current snow depths and snow water equivalents are mainly below
normal. Soil moisture states are generally normal to above normal
as are river flows, but with no widespread rainfall expected over
the next few days, runoff should abate somewhat.

No river ice exists across the region, so the threat of ice jam
flooding has passed for this season.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have little or
no snow on the ground and overall predictability beyond 10 days
is generally on the lower side of average.

A graphic depicting the flood potential across the NWS Burlington
service area is available online at:

www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

The next, and final Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be
issued by NWS Burlington on Thursday, April 25, 2024.

For access to current weather conditions and forecasts, please
visit our web site at www.weather.gov/btv.

$$

Neiles