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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241859
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
259 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering scattered light showers and patchy drizzle will taper
off from north to south this afternoon south of Lake Ontario,
with lagging cloud cover then slowly clearing out from north to
south through the end of the day. An expansive area of Canadian
high pressure will then assure us of fair, dry weather Thursday
and Friday. While some showers will be likely this coming
weekend, especially on Saturday, a good amount of dry time will
be built in. Looking further down the road, we can look forward
to a summer-like warm up Sunday and Monday with the mercury
surging well into the 70s and even a few spots into the 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Unseasonably Cold Tonight...

Back edge of scattered rain shower activity with areas of patchy
drizzle now working across areas south of Lake Ontario and will
continue to taper off from north to south through the afternoon.

Otherwise, southward bound surface cold front about to cross the
NY/PA line. Temperatures that started out the day in the 40s and low
50s have fallen back into the upper 30s to low and mid 40s for the
most part. Notably drier air continues to work southwards from
Ontario with the northern edge of cloud bank running from the north
shore of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley. This drier air
in combination with increasing subsidence will bring pronounced, but
slow clearing from north to south, especially south of Lakes Erie
and Ontario. While at least partial sunshine should make an
appearance at some point this afternoon across areas from the
Thruway north, unfortunately this could mean that areas closer to
the Pennsylvania border could be fairly cloudy right up to around
sunset.

Center of expansive area of Canadian high pressure over the upper
Great Lakes will expand southeast over the lower Great Lakes tonight
into Thursday. This will set the stage for a very chilly latter
April night, with cool airmass remaining in place Thursday. The
upside is that feature will provide dry weather, clearing skies
tonight/abundant sunshine Thursday, and mainly light winds. Lows
tonight will be mainly in the 20s away from the immediate
lakeshores. Despite plenty of strong April sunshine on Thursday,
highs will only recover into the 40s, with some low and mid 50s for
the traditionally warmer spots south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will remain camped over our region Thursday
night and Friday. Subsidence will limit cloud cover, and this lack
of cloud cover and light winds, with a dry lower atmosphere will
make for excellent radiational cooling conditions Thursday night,
with lows near freezing along the lakeshore, to lower 20s inland.

A warm front will near our region Friday night with increasing
clouds and rain showers reaching the western Southern Tier late.
Ahead of the rain, southeast downslope winds could reach 35 mph
along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Warm front enters our region Saturday, and accompanied by a
shortwave aloft a brief period of rain showers is expected. Basin
average rainfall will be on the order of a tenth to a third of an
inch. Some thunder may occur with limited MUCAPE values less than
500 J/KG, especially over Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier.

A few showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, may linger behind the
front later Saturday and Saturday night with again limited
instability. Mild Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s inland
and east of Lake Ontario, to near 60 across the favorable downslope
areas of WNY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heading into the later half of the weekend and into the first half
of the new work week, a ridge will lie across the Great Lakes, while
a broad trough will span across the Rockies and Central Plains.
Additionally, a shortwave trough will will be in the midst of
passing north into the ridge. This pattern will translate to an
initial surface low (supported by the shortwave) to wash out across
northern Quebec, meanwhile another surface low will develop across
the northern Plains. These surface features combined with the
building ridge aloft, will support the initial surface low`s cold
front to stall out just north of the area, supporting a brief
glimpse at summer like conditions with temperatures warming up into
the 70s and afternoon diurnally driven convection. Expect similar
such conditions, though a few degrees warmer to prevail through
Monday as the second surface low traverses northeast across Lake
Superior.

As the surface low marches toward Quebec Monday night through
Tuesday, its attendant surface cold front will approach the region
from the west and then cross from west to east. Initially expect
some thunderstorms ahead of the front`s arrival Monday night and
then rain showers with the front`s passage Tuesday. Additionally
with the front`s passage Tuesday, expect temperatures to be cooler
than Sunday and Monday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to low
70s, though still well above average for the end of April.

A secondary cold front will then cross the area from north to south
Wednesday supporting a small chance for a few rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread MVFR/IFR (higher terrain) CIGS and areas of patchy light
drizzle this afternoon across areas south of Lakes Erie and Ontario
in the wake of the cold front, which is now making its way into
northern Pennsylvania. Notably drier air and subsidence working
south out of Ontario Province evident on visible satellite imagery
as northern edge of thicker cloud cover now stretching from northern
Lake Ontario east to the North Country. In fact, KART just improved
to low VFR in the past hour. Expect this trend of low CIGS thinning
and scattering out to occur slowly from north to south through the
remainder of the daylight hours, with KJHW possibly hanging on to
MVFR/IFR CIGS until after sunset. MVFR VSBY may be possible in areas
of drizzle this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, gusty
north winds to 20-25 knots will quickly diminish this evening.

Center of expansive area of Canadian high pressure over the upper
Great Lakes will expand southeast over the lower Great Lakes tonight
into Thursday. This will bring widespread VFR conditions for tonight
and Thursday with dry weather and mainly light winds.


Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
In the wake of the passing cold front, winds have shifted to the
north and freshened. This has resulted in low-end Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario this afternoon, while the short
fetch and relative brief duration of the elevated winds will only
produce choppy waters on Lake Erie.

Expansive high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes this
evening will then gradually build across the lower Great Lakes
overnight and Thursday. This will significantly lower winds and
waves throughout the region this evening and tonight, with only
gentle breezes and negligible wave action expected through Thursday
night, and a light onshore flow developing Thursday as the surface
high passes overhead.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/RSH