513
FXUS62 KCAE 302152
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
552 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough aloft will push through the area Tuesday and
bring scattered showers-storms in the afternoon and evening.
Expect drier, warmer weather for Thursday and Friday with highs
back in the mid to upper 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase for the weekend as low level moisture increases. There
will be at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the long term with above normal temperatures
favored.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Center of shortwave acting as the forcing for this afternoons
scattered showers and thunderstorms has mved into northeastern
Georgia at suppertime. It should contibnue to trek generally
eastward through the evening hours, moving across the CWA
overnight. The threat of thunderstorms should mainly die out
after sunset with the losss of diurnal heating, but scattered
showers will continue at times overnight, forced by the cyclonic
flow aloft.

Temps have dropped several degrees in areas where it has rained
already, so I made a few adjustments to the hour by hour temp
forecast through midnight. Similarly, I adjusted POPs to account
for current radar trends.

We did have to put out a short term flood advisory for Burke
County as a narrow line of heavy rain totoals developed where a
couple of thunderstorms trained over the same general areas, but
that should be an isolated threat given the relatively modest
PWs less than 1.5 inches in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will build into the Southeast on
Wednesday. Drier air will also move into the area from the west
with PWAT values around 1 inch. Expect isolated to scattered
showers along the coastal plain and into the eastern Midlands
where low level moisture is higher. The severe weather threat is
low given the dry air aloft hindering growth and warmer temps
aloft. A downslope component to the wind fields will help push
temps back above average, in the mid to upper 80s.

As we move into Thursday, broad ridging will deepen across the
SE CONUS and the ridge axis will set up nearly directly
overhead. So while the dry northwest flow will weaken, general
subsidence will continue and skies will remain mostly clear
again Thursday. Thursday`s highs will be in the mid to upper
80s. As surface high pressure strengthens offshore, surface
winds will turn more out of the east in the afternoon and allow
dew points to push back into the 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The WPC cluster analysis page shows that most ensemble members
keep broad ridging in place through the long term, however not
as amplified as Thursday and Friday. This will open up the
synoptic pattern to a series of weak shortwaves sliding to our
northwest starting this weekend through the end of the period.
Ensembles generally favor an increase in atmospheric moisture
over the weekend with PWAT values around the 90th percentile.
This pattern of shortwaves riding over broad ridging and above
normal PWATs favor at least a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day of the long term with highest PoPs over
the weekend when atmospheric moisture is expected to be highest.
Thunderstorms in general will be favored during the afternoon
hours but could fall outside the typical diurnal period if
shortwave troughs cross the region outside of peak heating.
Above average temperatures are likely through much of the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected into the evening
ahead of an upper shortwave. Current radar loops suggest best
chance of TSRA in the near term will be near OGB and remain generally
south of DNL/AGS/CAE/CUB. Clearing of mid/upper cloud cover late
tonight combined with moist low levels, will set the stage for
restrictions in fog and/or stratus. After morning fog/stratus
dissipates, VFR expected Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions become possible Friday
night into Saturday ahead of a frontal boundary.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$