Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281509
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1009 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwest winds Thursday afternoon will produce an
  elevated risk of wildfire danger.

- Friday will be one of the nicest days of the year, with
  sunshine, 70s and light winds.

- A beautiful Easter weekend is expected, with unseasonably warm
  temperatures near 80 Easter afternoon.

- A cold front will bring a chance of rain late Monday and early
  Tuesday, followed by much cooler air Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The upper levels over western Kansas will be increasingly under
a ridging pattern, bringing subsidence and mostly clear
conditions Today. The models indicate some sky cover in the
afternoon which might be some invading cirrus as seen already
this morning on the GOES nighttime microphysics RBG composite.
The 850 mb wind field picks up significantly along the gradient
ahead of the developing lee trough. Mixing ought to ensue by
mid morning, as gusts in the LAMP guidance and commonly exceeds
30 knots for Hays and Dodge City. The widespread well mixed
airmass should find afternoon highs generally around 70 degrees.

Winds remain in the 10-15 knots range overnight as the gusts
cease after sunset, apparently allowing enough mixing for
temperatures to remain relatively mild – above freezing from mid
30s west to the low/mid 40s southeast.

A modifying airmass in the northern plains will be warmer as
it’s driven southward Friday. Veering surface winds will become
lighter as the drier air more efficiently warms through both
adiabatic downsloping and strong insolation. Warmest
temperatures will likely be ahead of the surface cold front, and
although it’s not that cold, it’s still the direction of the
colder air. A reasonably wide range of outcomes is possible for
highs, as the 25th percentile NBM focuses 80 degrees or higher
over just the red hills, but the 75th percentile places just
about everything south of a Larned to Garden City line above 80
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Saturday may bring a break in the temperatures to the cooler
side as the high pressure influences the central Plains. Models
and NBM have the surface winds veering to the southwest again
by Sunday, and a return to the warm upper 70s or low 80s appears
imminent. For many runs now the models have advertised a cold
front and enhanced precipitation period around Monday/Tuesday.
This could range from chances for thunderstorms along the
frontal passage to rain and or snow behind the front into Monday
night. All that is followed by a windy Tuesday and returning to
another warming trend at least though the end of the 7 day
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF cycle, with limited
scattered cirrus. Strong S/SW winds will gust to near 30 kts at
all airports through 00z Fri. After sunset, south winds will
remain elevated, gusting to near 20 kts through the night, in
response to a strong low level jet. With the LLJ, included a
mention of low level wind shear in all TAFs after 03z Fri.
Excellent flying weather will continue Friday, with VFR/SKC and
light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The far southwest locations, around Liberal and Elkhart to
Ulysses and Syracuse will be the overall driest with the highest
fire risk Today, approaching red flag for about 4 or 5 hours in
the afternoon, if not touching the meteorological criterion for
some of that time. Open burning should be strongly discouraged
for these areas. On Friday the southwest region will again be in
an elevated fire weather risk, and although winds will be far
weaker, the low humidity will mean fire can escape control more
easily.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Russell


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