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000
FXUS63 KDDC 130902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
402 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today with high fire danger.

- Hot again Sunday with a continued fire danger.

- Next major weather system moves through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The heat is on today with significant downsloping. Forecast skew-t/log-p`s
show a very well mixed (to nearly 500 hPa) boundary layer. Dewpoints
will mix out during the day and the potential for mechanical mixing
could very well lead to gusty winds. The combination of the above
normal highs and breezy/gusty winds spells out the concern for Red
Flag conditions across a large portion of the FA. As a result, a Red
Flag warning will be in effect.

The prevailing hot and arid weather pattern is anticipated to persist
Sunday, featuring above normal highs ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s. EPS data indicates a probability exceeding 90% for temperatures
surpassing 80F for the FA. This aligns closely with deterministic
data, indicating significantly above normal high temperatures. Given
this warmth, there is a need to closely monitor the potential for
increased fire danger Sunday. Although there is a possibility that
wind speeds may remain marginal, potentially mitigating the fire
risk to some extent. This aspect requires ongoing observations and
tweaks to the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Attention then turns to Monday. A potent synoptic low pressure system
is forecast to traverse across the plains. Despite ongoing analysis,
there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of
this potentially significant weather system. CIPS analogs show the
possibility of two scenarios: high-end severe weather events
and lower-intensity to null events. It is premature to speculate on
the precise details of severe storm potential, given the uncertain
position of the dryline and also capping issues. However, in the
warm sector and east of the dryline, more than sufficient speed and
directional shear in combination with instability is forecast by
some of the models to support the development of supercells. At this
juncture, will adhere to the NBM grids with ongoing monitoring of
both deterministic and ensemble runs for any discernible trends
either for an escalated severe threat or the other side of the spectrum
with dryslotting and capping issues potentially reducing the risk.

Beyond Monday, the forecast may trend to cooler and generally drier
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024


VFR expected through TAF pd. S to SW winds 12-21 kt with higher gusts
today.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /noon MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079-
084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden