Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
720
FNUS73 KDMX 011322
FWSDMX
Spot Forecast for Sickels...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
822 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.
Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.
.DISCUSSION...
Low confidence light showers overhead this morning that will
continue to progress to the north. Main push of rain will arrive
later this afternoon, reaching the burn site after 3pm. RH values
to drop into the low 30s this afternoon, but plenty of moisture
is available from recent rainfall to dampen the chance for spread.
Winds will veer through the day as an area of low pressure
approaches from the west. Winds in the morning will begin out of
the northwest becoming north to northeast through the afternoon
hours.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 to 17 mph shifting to the
northwest 8 to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 23 mph shifting to the north 10
to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (44100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57 65 70 73 67 67 66 68 69
Weather cov..... SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............56 59 61 61 63 66 68 69 69
RH..............64 55 49 48 44 40 37 36 37
20 FT wind dir..W W W NW NW NW NW N N
20 FT wind spd..15 17 16 16 15 14 12 10 8
20 FT wind gust.22 24 23 22 21 18 16 14 12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.2 2.7
Transp wind dir.W W NW NW NW NW N N N
Transp wind spd.20 23 23 22 20 17 14 13 10
GFDI............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100018 43 34 37 38 44 35 35 24
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
rain showers with thunderstorms likely
overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the east 6
to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight,
then increasing to around 17 mph early in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the evening and overnight.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the east 7 to
15 mph in the late evening and overnight, then
increasing to 18 to 22 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........75 65 79 84 91 92
Weather cov.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Temp............67 61 54 51 50 50
RH..............40 56 69 80 83 83
20 ft wind......N 8 NE 7 E 8 E 9 E 14 E 15
20 ft wind gust.10 10 10 14 20 21
Mix hgt (ft)....1800 500 500 700 700 800
Transport wind..N 7 NE 6 E 9 E 14 E 18 E 20
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100011 2 4 8 11 14
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers with
thunderstorms likely.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 26 mph shifting to the south 13
to 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (30500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........95 96 97 96
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Temp............50 50 58 61
RH..............86 100 90 93
20 FT wind......E 18G25 SE 20G28 SE 17G24 S 15G21
Mix hgt (ft)....1100 1500 1200 900
Transport wind..E 24 SE 24 SE 22 S 15
GFDI............1 1 1 0
Haines index....4 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100024 31 23 12
$$
Forecaster...Jimenez
Requested by...Adam Kulow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412898.0/DMX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam.kulow@dnr.iowa.gov