199
FXUS63 KDVN 071751
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1251 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Squall line to move through early this morning.

- Marginal risk for severe storms with this line.

- Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Today: Squall line will continue to progress across the forecast
area early this morning with the potential for 60 mph wind
gusts possible (MRGL risk for severe). A few thunderstorms are
still possible behind this line which should linger into
northwest IL early this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s.

Tonight: A few showers possible this evening otherwise a dry
overnight hours. Cooler with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Wednesday: Low pressure races out of the southern Plains and
into the OH Valley. However, severe storms with this system look
to remain south of our forecast area and SPC has shifted the
SLGT and ENH farther to the south somewhat. Our attention then
turns to an upper low that will drop southeast out of the
Dakotas into northwest IA. This is associated with a -20C h5
temperature cold core aloft. Enough instability and shear will
be present to trigger scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon into the evening. Can`t rule out some of these storms
to produce hail and strong gusty winds (MRGL severe level 1 of 5).
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday through early next week: Pattern change to a northwest
flow as a deep trough sets up shop across the Great Lakes.
Periodic disturbances in the flow will bring off and on showers
and a few thunderstorms with almost daily chance pops.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the 40s for much of the extended.
These readings are somewhat below normal for early May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A cold front is forecast to move eastward across the eastern
Iowa TAF sites early this afternoon. Conditions will quickly
improve to VFR behind the front as MVFR ceilings clear.
Showers and storms may develop in the vicinity of KBRL and KMLI
through 21 UTC before the threat shifts to the east of the
area. Southwesterly winds are forecast to diminish after 00
UTC.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Cousins