Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
579 FNUS21 KWNS 051525 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$