Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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606 FXUS63 KEAX 141120 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 620 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday evening - A few strong storms will be possible Wednesday night. The main threat will be for gusty winds to 50 mph possible. - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday. Multiple days of rain could lead to some minor flooding concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Currently, there is upper level troughing over our area, with ridging entering the Great Plains. There is an upper level jet to the southeast of our area over southeastern MO. In the lower levels there is a surface low to the east of the area. The associated cold front is to our east resulting in northerly winds for our region. Remnants of wrap around scattered showers from the upper low are continuing to dissipate over the area. As the low very slowly shifts east of the region today, intermittent showers are expected through this evening. A brief break from the rain is expected as the surface low moves out of the area and ridging moves into the area Tuesday night. This will result in dry conditions through Wednesday morning. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday are anticipated to be near normal for this time of year. Wednesday night, a shortwave pushes through the area resulting in a chance for some scattered showers developing in eastern KS and moving east. With CAPE values ranging from 500-1,000 J/kg and bulk shear values in the 30-40kt range, no severe weather is expected; However, there is still a chance for some of these storms to produce gusty winds. These storms are anticipated to be east of the area by Thursday evening. Going into Friday an active pattern continues with another trough approaching the region from the southwest. This system may be a little stronger than the past systems due to jet support. With the more favorable severe weather environment to the south, severe threats seem to be minimal over our area. At this time, scattered showers are expected to begin early Friday morning and last through the day. For the start of the weekend, ridging moves in behind the trough which should give us a short break from the rain. This weekend is expected to remain dry with high temperatures possibly reaching the mid to upper 80s. Extended model guidance shows confidence that the pattern will remain active with multiple shortwaves passing through the area giving us multiple chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 MVFR cigs are impacting MKC and IXD and are expected to move into MCI by the TAF valid time or just after. MVFR cigs are then expected thru 20Z-22Z before lifting to VFR. However, aft 05Z-07Z MVFR cigs with vis reduced to 4-5SM are expected to move back into the TAF sites. Winds will be out of the N around 10kts thru 05Z-07Z when it will become lgt and vrb. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...73