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Spot Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 121659
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for 16 Sprints RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1059 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
It will be very dry today with min RH values dropping into the
lower to mid teens. Highs will be well above normal beneath some
cirrus clouds. Winds are expected to be breezy today topping out
around 15 to 20 MPH, generally from the south but direction may
shift southwesterly quicker than forecast below. Vent rates are
expected to be in the excellent category this afternoon.
Conditions change little through Sunday, but critical to possibly
extreme conditions are expected for Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    31 mph.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (213500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........47     48     59     59
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............68     70     73     71
RH..............16     15     13     14
20 ft wind......S 14   S 15   S 17   S 17
20 ft wind gust.24     29     31     31
Mix hgt (ft)....9000   9000   10200  10200
Transport wind..S 25   S 25   S 28   S 28
Haines index....4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..214    214    244    244
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west around 13 mph after 3 am. Gusts up to 31
                    mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 22 mph shifting to the west around
                    24 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (209000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (10600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........47     47     25     10     10     9
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     60     55     53     50     48
RH..............17     24     31     33     31     30
20 ft wind......S 15   S 15   SW 12  SW 13  SW 13  W 13
20 ft wind gust.31     31     23     25     25     23
Mix hgt (ft)....8700   8700   600    600    600    600
Transport wind..S 22   S 22   SW 22  SW 22  W 24   W 24
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..209    209    11     11     11     11
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 14 to 18 mph with gusts to around 35
                    mph.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 26 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (85800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (164300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........8         7         10        17
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............46        55        65        69
RH..............32        24        14        13
20 FT wind......W 14G26   W 16G31   W 17G32   W 18G35
Mix hgt (ft)....3200      3200      5800      6300
Transport wind..W 26      W 26      W 28      W 30
Haines index....4         4         4         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..86        86        141       164
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds around 14 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 23 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 20 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Eric Jackson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410529.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL eric.a.jackson@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
