298
FXUS62 KFFC 100250
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1050 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A cluster of strong thunderstorms is moving through east-central
Georgia and is anticipated to enter the southwest portion of the
forecast area (primarily in and south of Columbus) over the next
couple of hours. These storms will likely be strong to severe,
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and frequent
lightning. With wet soils across, heavy rainfall associated with
these storms could also lead to localized flooding concerns.

King

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A very active today across the area with a the overnight MCS
followed by another MCS that dove SE across AL this morning.
Shower and tstm activity continues across the S half of the County
Warning Area (CWA), with the strongest storms (some severe) across
the extreme S. Tornado Watch number 216 was extended across the S
until 3 PM. Tornado Watch number 217 continues S of that area
until 5 PM. Activity is expected to gradually sag farther S
through the remainder of the afternoon and eventually weaken S of
the CWA.

The respite in weather will be short-lived, as a quick-moving MCS
is forecast to sweep across the S portion of the area late tonight
and Fri morning. High resolution models have been very consistent
regarding strength and timing of this feature. However, the fly in
the ointment is the lingering cool pool N of today`s line of
convection. There will likely be some recovery in instability
across the area (particularly where storms ended the earliest).
However, this feature will be moving across late at night and
early in the morning. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to
be farther to the S, with severe storms possible (mainly S of
Macon). The greatest threat will be damaging winds with this
system, but there will be a lesser threat of hail and isolated
tornadoes. The forecast will likely be further honed later this
evening as the impact of earlier convection becomes more clear.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A brief period of dry and slightly cooler weather is expected
this weekend as we return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances
look to return to the region next week as another low pressure
system developing in the Southern Plains moves eastward. QPF
values have been adjust slightly based on the latest guidance.
Otherwise, little change was made to the existing packages.

07/SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

TSRA from this afternoon has moved southward out of the forecast
area and away from all TAF sites. Aside from scattered MVFR level
clouds, in north and central Georgia over the next couple of
hours, VFR conditions are expected to persist through late
tonight. Another cluster of thunderstorms has developed over
central Alabama, which will bring the potential for another round
of precip during the early morning hours. Highest confidence of
precip occurring is at CSG, where there is prevailing SHRA after
06Z and a TEMPO with winds of VRB20G40KT from 09-13Z. Elsewhere,
PROB30 for TSRA is being carried starting at 10Z due to
uncertainty on storm motion. Ceilings are anticipated to lower to
MVFR by 09Z, then lift back to VFR by 16Z and scatter out by
19-20Z. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be primarily SW at
5-10 kts overnight into Friday morning, shifting to NE at 10-15
kts with gusts of 20-25 kts after 16Z and through the remainder of
the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  83  52  77 /  10  30   0   0
Atlanta         66  82  54  76 /  40  30   0   0
Blairsville     58  74  46  69 /  10  20   0  10
Cartersville    62  80  49  76 /  30  20   0   0
Columbus        67  85  57  80 /  70  60   0   0
Gainesville     65  80  53  75 /  10  30   0   0
Macon           67  83  56  79 /  40  60   0   0
Rome            63  80  51  76 /  30  20   0   0
Peachtree City  65  83  52  78 /  50  40   0   0
Vidalia         69  83  59  80 /  30  90   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...King