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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211822
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
122 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry conditions are forecast today. While winds remain
  under 25 mph, dry conditions will increase the potential for
  fires to spread rapidly.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Main focus on this update was given toward Monday`s potential
fire weather conditions. Winds will be increased tomorrow in the
15-30 mph, highest in eastern ND. These winds along with
continued dry air mass over the area is contributing to 50%
chance in critical fire weather conditions for portions of
eastern ND into the Red River Valley. Factors that would create
these conditions would be efficient mixing to drive higher
winds and slightly lower RH. This remains in question due to
uncertain cloud coverage, as well as the effect of weak cold
air advection has on mixing potential. Because of this, may need
to consider a Fire Weather Watch.

Otherwise, temperatures are steadily climbing toward the 60s
under clear skies across the entire area. This along with
lighter winds are making for quite a comfortable day, but
continuing the potential for potentially increased fire spread
based solely on status of fuels and very dry air mass over the
area.

UPDATE
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

There remains high confidence in very dry air mass over the
region composed of dew points in the teens, potentially as low
as single digits, with temperatures into the 60s. Surface
ridge axis remains near our area today helping keep winds
lowered in the 10-15 mph range, with gusts around 20 mph during
mid to late afternoon.

Despite winds being on the lower side under 25 mph, the very
dry air mass over our area along with presently dry fuels will
increase the potential for fires to spread rapidly should a fire
develop.

UPDATE
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Few cirrus clouds moving into far northern MN, around Lake of
the Woods. Skies clear elsewhere. Impacts today tied to near
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Full sunshine expected today as high pressure drops to our south
and winds turn more westerly today. As upper low and surface low
continues to move away 900-800 mb layer winds diminish so wind
speeds today in the more tolerable 10-15 mph range. Dry airmass
in place with dew points today in the upper teens to low 20s.
Surface temps warm about 10 degrees over Saturday with highs
upper 50s/low 60s. This will bring RH values down into the 17-22
percent range for the forecast area. Based on low RH values near
critical fire weather conditions will occur in both eastern ND
(after coord with BIS) and in NW/WC Minnesota (coord with
DLH/MPX). Per policy mention near critical fire wx in E ND in
HWO and SPS to be issued for MN fcst area for today.

Next 500 mb short wave/upper low is moving into central BC and
then into central Alberta by late today and track east-
southeast into south central Saskatchewan Monday afternoon.
Moisture ahead of this 500 mb wave is very limited as 850 mb
winds turn westerly Monday. Enough mid level moisture for a few
rain showers as surface trough moves thru E ND/NW MN in the
aftn/eve. Rain amounts very light with probability of more than
0.25 inch 5 percent. Mostly looking at trace to 0.05 inch. Upper
low will open up and more of a short wave trough will move into
northern MN by 12z Tues with this short wave trough moving
southeast quickly Tuesday. Area of clouds and gusty north sfc
winds spread thru the fcst area Mon overnight/Tues AM with
a bit of light rain/drizzle. NBM pops look a little low Tuesday
AM so did spread the 15-20 pops a bit more widespread than NBM
4.1 gave.

Clearing works in fast and a sunny day on Wednesday.


Thursday and beyond an active pattern develops as a couple of
strong 500 mb short waves move inland from the Pacific and into
the central or southern Rockies and then northeast from there
toward the Great Lakes. For our area...these will bring chances
for rain, highest chances for each are over the southeast 1/2
of the fcst area. How far the rain gets is a bit different among
the various long range ensembles with GFS maintaining a bit
stronger solution, but all do have the chances for 1 inch or
more to our south/east so rain amounts do not look too impactful
at this time. with probs for more than 0.25 inch in a 24 hr
period Friday-Friday night across the forecast area 50-60
percent southeast to 30 percent northwest. A wave Apr 30/May 1
does look to be the stronger of the 2 in terms of rain coverage.
But again the better chances for 1 inch or more of rain does
look to be to our south/east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions across the area through Monday
morning. Winds will be generally out of the west through 00Z
turning more southwesterly between 00-09Z. Between 09-18Z, a
cold front shifts winds out of the west again. Scattered areas
of virga and/or light rain showers will accompany this frontal
passage.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ