346
FXUS64 KFWD 120614
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

Widespread thunderstorms will impact the area today with threats
for heavy rain/flooding as well the potential for marginally
severe hail. A threat for additional severe weather is expected
east of I-35 on Monday.

A lead shortwave disturbance brought areas of showers and
thunderstorms to North and Central Texas yesterday evening, some
of which still persist across North Texas and the Texoma region
early this morning. However, a more potent shortwave exiting the
Central High Plains will bring a round of much more widespread
showers and thunderstorms to the entire forecast area beginning
around and after daybreak. This will be due to strong isentropic
ascent and robust northward moisture flux interacting with
steepening mid-level lapse rates. Around or after 6 AM, a rapid
blossoming of convection should occur from the Texas Hill Country
northeastward, with activity overspreading nearly the entire CWA
by mid morning. This convection will be elevated, limiting the
severe weather hazards to hail. However, flooding will also be of
concern with some portions of the area likely to see rainfall
totals of 2-3" through the daytime. A Flood Watch remains in
effect roughly along and south of I-20 where the flooding threat
will be highest.

This main round of rainfall is likely to taper off to the east
this evening, with a relative lull in precipitation occurring
overnight into early Monday morning. However, this system`s
trailing cold front will be moving through the area during this
time window, and this boundary should be capable of igniting new
convection as it encounters exceptional instability east of I-35
after sunrise Monday morning. Some strong/severe thunderstorm
activity along the front seems likely as it eventually progresses
into East Texas by mid afternoon. Threats for large hail and
damaging gusts will exist, the primary threat being determined by
the eventual convective mode which remains uncertain. A tornado
cannot be ruled out either, although the amount of low-level
instability recovery that occurs ahead of the front remains
uncertain, and this would dictate whether any tornado threat may
end up materializing. Most activity should be exiting the area to
the east by Monday evening along the cold front, leading to a
pleasant and dry overnight period.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 203 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

Brief ridging aloft and weak advection of slightly cooler and
drier air will result in a pleasant day on Tuesday with plenty of
sun and highs in the lower and middle 80s. The ridge axis will
shift to the east Tuesday night as yet another low pressure
organizes across the Desert Southwest. Energy from this system
will not arrive in North and Central Texas until Wednesday
afternoon. The initial convection will form across West Texas on
the dryline during the afternoon. This activity will move
eastward through Thursday with the passing shortwave. Based on
the pattern, it does appear that some strong to severe storms will
be possible along with a potential for more flooding in some
locations. More details about the severe weather/flooding threat
will become more clear in the coming days. The passage of the
shortwave will allow a cold front to move through the region
Thursday night/Friday morning, bringing a temporary end to the
precipitation. Right now it appears the weekend will be rain-free
for forecast area with most of the precipitation  staying near
the cold front across the Texas Coast.

Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be seasonably warm
overall with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. It does look
like temperatures will creep into the lower 90s across some of the
western counties on Saturday.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Isolated thunderstorms are moving across D10 as of 06z, but will
clear the area in an hour or two with mostly rain-free weather
the rest of the early morning period. A large swath of showers
and thunderstorms will begin developing off to the southwest
during a 10-12z time window, and this activity will overspread the
entire region for the following several hours and persist into
the afternoon. Several hours of TS impacts are likely at all
airports. In addition, the arrival of rich low-level moisture
later this morning will result in prevailing IFR cigs, while
precipitation brings visibility reductions into the 2-5SM range.
The main round of precip is expected to move off to the east late
this afternoon or evening, but widespread low stratus and perhaps
some fog will fill in behind, with IFR prevailing overnight into
Monday morning.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  73  67  85  64 /  60 100  60  50   5
Waco                61  75  69  85  63 /  60 100  60  50   5
Paris               62  73  64  83  62 /  60 100  90  80  10
Denton              60  72  64  83  60 /  60 100  60  50   5
McKinney            63  72  66  83  62 /  60 100  80  60   5
Dallas              64  73  67  86  64 /  60 100  70  60   5
Terrell             63  72  66  84  62 /  50 100  80  60   5
Corsicana           64  75  69  86  64 /  50 100  80  70   5
Temple              62  77  69  85  62 /  70  90  50  50   5
Mineral Wells       58  73  64  83  59 /  60 100  40  40   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Monday afternoon for
TXZ119>122-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$