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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210839
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
239 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog may develop along and north of Interstate 70
  in northeast Colorado and adjacent Kansas border counties this
  morning.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for the week.
  There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For today, the morning could start with some lingering clouds and
patchy fog across the area. Any fog should burn off a few hours
after sunrise, but the cloud cover could linger until the early
afternoon. Even if clouds linger, full mixing should be able to
occur, though temperatures may struggle to warm to 60 given the high
pressure that will be over the area.

Tomorrow is still forecast to be much warmer with temperatures
nearing 80 underneath sunny skies and with warm air advecting into
the area ahead of an upper disturbance. The warm and dry conditions
could allow RH to reach the teens, but critical fire weather
conditions either wouldn`t occur or occur briefly as winds are
forecast to struggle to reach 20-25 mph in a broad pressure
gradient. As the upper low and accompanying surface slow swing
through the area during the afternoon hours, there could be a few
storms that fire up along the surface convergence zone. If they did,
they`d likely be non-severe with generally less than a 1000 J/KG of
CAPE forecast and not much moisture available to help storms sustain
themselves.

Tuesday, current forecast calls for highs to be a bit lower than
Monday at around 70 with a slightly cooler air mass and high
pressure over the area. However, upper ridging is forecast to begin
building into the area which may allow temperatures to be a few
degrees warmer than currently forecast. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected through the day unless a few storms can fire up over
the higher terrain in Colorado along with a potential weak shortwave
moving through during the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A fairly active pattern looks to be in store for the long-
term. Wednesday, a ridge will move over the region allowing us
to warm into the low 70s. A low pressure system will force the
ridge out, but when is the big question.

The GFS has a well defined upper-level low pressure system
moving through the area Thursday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF
and CMC-NH delay this feature about 12-18 hours. However, at 850
mb, all three show a low pressure system moving across the area
between 0-12Z Friday, suggesting another (potential) nocturnal
event. SPC has placed a 15% severe weather outlook for our
eastern area for this timeframe. There is good agreement that an
850 mb moist conveyor belt will setup around Thursday 6Z,
feeding Gulf moisture into the eastern 1/3 to 2/3 if the CWA,
and continue until the cold front attached to the low moves
through. Confidence is low (<15%) for timing of this event, but
anywhere from Thursday afternoon to Friday evening looks to be
fair game.

In the far western CWA Thursday afternoon, west of the dryline
(wherever it may setup) conditions look favorable for near
critical fire weather conditions. RH values in the mid teens
with wind gusts around 25 kts could put about 1/3 of Cheyenne
county Colorado into Red Flag territory. Confidence of Red Flag
criteria is about 15%.

Winds will generally be southerly, save for Friday when they
will be northwesterly behind the FROPA. Pressure changes with
this system do not seem to be as strong as what they were last
week, thus current confidence for High Wind is less than 10%.
The generally southerly winds will allow us to keep temperatures
a bit warmer overall. Thursday is expected to see mid 70s to
mid 80s. Friday and Saturday are expected to cool off, with
highs in the 70s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s ahead of the cold front; behind the FROPA, we will
see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

A weak ridge looks to build in from the southeast Friday night
and Saturday morning which will clear out any remaining
precipitation. This happens just ahead of another low pressure
system that guidance is showing will impact the area around
Saturday night. Due to how far away the event is, climatology,
and forecast temperature trend, we cannot rule out some more
snow showers or severe weather moving over the area with this
second system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

GLD: MVFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to IFR-LIFR in
association with low ceilings and/or fog overnight. Significant
improvement is not anticipated to occur until late Sunday
morning, when ceilings will lift to MVFR.. scattering out to VFR
during the early afternoon. VFR conditions will persist
thereafter.. through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will
remain light and variable through Sunday morning.. shifting to
the S-SSW and increasing to 10-15 knots mid-late Sunday
afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions may deteriorate to MVFR-IFR (in association
with low ceilings) for a period overnight. Improvement is
expected to occur by sunrise.. with VFR conditions prevailing
through the duration of the TAF period. Winds will remain light
and variable through early-mid Sunday afternoon.. eventually
shifting to the S-SSW and increasing to 10-15 knots late Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BV