Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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463
FXUS63 KGRR 260654
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
254 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Weak low pressure will spread some clouds and the chance for
showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Generally fair
weather can be expected Sunday and Monday before moisture surges
up from the Gulf of Mexico with rain arriving by the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Forecast issue in the near term is timing and coverage of showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight. Overall coverage of rain will
not be great but small clusters of showers and a few thunderstorms
can be expected with the southern third of the forecast area
expecting the most.

Instability and shear are marginal so no severe storms are
expected but PWATS are around 1.5 inches today and isolated heavy
downpours are possible.

Weak upper trough over the Great Lakes today and tonight is
replaced by building heights and ridging north of the Gulf low,
which should mean an end to showers by Sunday and continued dry on
Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Looks like we`ll have a few opportunities for rain during the long
term. The first will come Tuesday afternoon. As the upper ridge over
the eastern Great Lakes moves east, the gfs shows a weak short wave
moving north toward Lower Michigan. The ecmwf doesn`t show this so
confidence is still fairly low that we`ll see rain.

A higher chance of rain will come Wednesday and Thursday. Both the
gfs and ecmwf show the remnants of Alberto moving north from the
Gulf and rain reaching Lower Michigan perhaps as early as Wednesday
(gfs/Canadian) or Thursday (ecmwf). Either way, all of the models
show a pretty good signal for rain.

There`s also a chance of rain Friday as a cold front move south
across the state.

Tuesday will be the warmest day with highs in the mid 80s and then
highs falling back into the 70s for the rest of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

A weak trough of low pressure moving across the state is pushing
some weak showers northeastward from Illinois toward far southwest
Lower Michigan. Expect a few showers near the TAF sites. It`s also
possible that some fog could develop at MKG after 10z due to weak
wind off the cold lake. Later this afternoon a few showers or
isolated thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas of fog are possible the next couple days as dew points in
the lower to mid 60s combine with water temperatures in the 40s
and lower 50s. Winds and waves will continue to be relatively
light.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Rivers continue their decline across the region. Any weekend
rainfall is not expected to reverse this trend. The Grand River at
Ionia should return within banks by late tonight or Saturday.
Otherwise, all other rivers should be within their banks for the
entire weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...Ostuno



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