Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 211930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Our dry but cool weather pattern will continue for the next
several days thanks to a persistent area of high pressure
centered to our north in Canada. Temperatures will moderate early
next week, and a chance of rain showers will arrive Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

High level cloudiness, related to the system impacting the Mid
Atlantic, will linger this evening but then exit to the east late
tonight. That will leave clear skies for Thursday and Friday,
with large diurnal temperature swings expected. The cool and dry
air mass will lead to chilly overnight lows of 20-25 and highs in
the mid 40s inland from Lake Michigan. A little chillier for highs
lakeside though due to north-northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A wintry system passing by to our south on Saturday will bring a
period of clouds and stronger easterly winds that will make it
feel rather brisk. Guidance continues to keep any precip with
that system south of Michigan, but can`t completely rule out some
light rain/snow (or more likely virga) in the far southwest
corner. We should return to nearly full sunshine on Sunday as that
system departs and a high amplitude upper ridge builds over the

Monday looks really nice with the low level flow turning
southeasterly and the big upper ridge still providing sunshine.
Typically this pattern at this time of year (pre green-up) leads
to temperatures much warmer than guidance. The western portion of
the area is typically warmest in southeast flow, and wouldn`t
rule out some readings around 60.

Good chance of rain showers arrives late Monday night or Tuesday
once the upper ridge axis shifts east and gulf moisture streams
north in the strengthening southerly flow. PWATs over one inch
are progged to arrive, so the air mass should feel more springlike
by then - and our lengthy dry pattern should finally come to an
end. Did not include thunder on Tuesday and Wednesday, but that`s
something to watch as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Confidence is very high that VFR conditions will continue tonight
and Thursday. North winds of 10 to 20 knots this afternoon will
diminish to less than 10 kts after 00Z this evening, then
become northwest on Thursday.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Expect brisk northerly flow of 10 to 20 knots through Friday, with
choppy 2-4 footers out on the big lake.


Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Dry weather is expected into next week and river levels will
continue to fall. The Portage River at Vicksburg however, will
remain around flood level into the weekend.




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