Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 190516

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
116 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018


Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A cold front will move through Lower Michigan tonight. Cooler
northeast winds behind the front will result in Monday temperatures
at least 10 degrees below today`s highs. Dry weather is expected
this week. A later winter storm will move close to the Great Lakes
next weekend and may result in some snow Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

No concerns in the short term. We lowered mins a few degrees below
mos values again tonight due the very dry air in place. A cold front
currently over northern Lower will drop south tonight and the
Northeast winds behind it will bring in cooler air for Monday and
Tuesday. Highs Monday will be near 40 and only in the 30s Tuesday.

We`re expecting mostly clear skies tonight. The models are trying to
hint at some stratocu developing tonight off of Lake Huron, but the
air seems pretty dry and so we think mostly clear is the way to go.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Confidence remains quite low regarding the potential for
accumulating snow on Friday night and Saturday. Deterministic model
and ensemble solutions continue to struggle on the track of the low
pressure system next weekend, although the majority of solutions do
have the low passing by to our south. Thermal profiles are
supportive of mostly snow if it did precipitate due to evaporative
cooling related to pre existing dry/cold airmass.

There is also the possibility of that system passing well south of
the state and the precip completely missing Lower Michigan. This
idea has merit since that persistent upper trough over Ern Canada
and New England could easily shear the system out. The other
complicating factor is the feed of dry air over the state related
to the big 1040 mb high to the north.

Outside of the snow potential next weekend, the long term period
looks dry but chilly with sfc ridging dominating.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Some lower
clouds may pass through Central Lower Michigan, but these are
expected to stay well north of the TAF sites. ENE winds will
increase to 10 to 15 knots by late morning and these will
continue into the evening.

This is my last aviation forecast of my career. It`s been a
pleasure serving the National Airspace System for the Great Lakes
Region for nearly 30 years. Keeping people and commerce safe.
Thank you for the honor to serve you.


Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots expected tonight and Monday along
with waves 1-3 feet.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The Portage River near Vicksburg will remain just above flood stage
through Thursday and then remain near flood stage through the
weekend. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through Friday.




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