Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 171743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
143 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018


Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

An area of low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley today...far
enough south to keep the weather dry here in the region.
Temperatures will continue to moderate today will all areas
climbing into the 40s. A weakening cold front will dissipate as it
moves into the region tonight. High pressure will then strengthen
as it builds into Ontario on Monday. This will support dry
conditions here in Michigan.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Overall the pattern remains quiet into Monday. The area of
precipitation lifting slowly east northeast through northern
Illinois and Indiana is still expected to stay south of the
Kalamazoo to Battle Creek area. Will maintain a dry forecast for
now. The low pulls away this afternoon. This will support a decent
amount of sunshine for the region. With an easterly
flow...temperatures will moderate. We may see a few 50s
around...mainly between Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo.

There is a weakening cold front that drops down from the northwest
tonight. This feature is shown to dissipate over the area by
Sunday. The easterly flow resumes during the day on Sunday. Thus
another warmup is anticipated. Temperatures will likely end up a
few degrees warmer than Saturday. With a very dry airmass
continuing...the sunshine should be abundant.

The pressure gradient tightens up on Monday as high pressure
strengthens to the north and low pressure deepens to the south.
Shallow cold air advection occurs with the models showing 925
temperatures falling Sunday night from east to west as a backdoor
cold front slips down from the northeast. Thus Monday will not be
as warm as Sunday. Even if we go dry adiabatic to 925 mb...some
locations may not reach 40 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The first few days of Spring will not feel like the season as a cold
air mass settles back over the region.  However we will still have
mainly dry weather.

Once low pressure passes across the TN valley on Tuesday, it will
help pull in colder air across the Great Lakes.  The Tuesday through
Thursday time frame will see H8 temps between -8C and -11C, keeping
max temps only around 40 each day, while lows fall to around 20,
feeling more like late February than late March.  A large area of
high pressure anchored near James Bay will help keep us dry. However
it`s not out of the question to see a few lake effect flurries
Wednesday into Thursday as the H8 thermal trough crosses Lake

Less upper troughing over the Great Lake by Thursday night and
Friday should signal a pattern that is not as cold.  And with the
Canadian high only drifting slowly east, dry weather should


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Confidence is very high that VFR conditions will continue through
Sunday. Easterly sfc winds of 5-10 kts today will become westerly
for tonight and Sunday.


Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The Portage River near Vicksburg will remain just above flood stage
through Tuesday and then remain near flood stage through the end of
next week. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through the weekend.




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