218
FXUS63 KGRR 080254
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1054 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night

- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

While the earlier convection which produced the tornadoes has
weakened and moved east, another line of storms is now racing east
across Lake Michigan from WI. This activity is expected to
gradually weaken, but there is still a respectable wind core aloft
with the line pressing toward Holland and MKE gusted to 49 kts
earlier. Special Marine Warning recently issued may need to be
followed up with at least a Special Weather Statement for parts
of the lakeshore for gusts up to 50 mph.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

- Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night

The forecast is progressing as expected and severe storms are a
distinct possibility the rest of this afternoon and evening.

Radar shows the initial push of showers/non-severe storms has
migrated to the eastern cwa and clearing is rapidly filling in
behind it across the southwest cwa. Destabilization is rapidly
occuring and as a strong short wave moves closer, severe storms
have developed over northeast IL and are moving northeast toward
Lower MI.

SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE around 2500 j/kg and bulk shear
greater than 60 kts across northeast IL. Severe storms will
continue to develop to the southwest through early evening and
move into the cwa and all severe hazard types are possible: hail,
wind, tornadoes. Areas south of I-96 have the highest risk for
severe storms, but all of the cwa has a chance. The severe threat
will end after 10 pm as the short wave axis rotates north out of
the cwa.

Wednesday will be dry with weak ridging moving into the cwa.
However, it will be short lived as the rest of the upper trough
pivots through the state beginning Wednesday night.

Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 40s Wednesday
night.

- Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday

Rainfall begins early Thursday morning and continues into the day
Thursday as a low-pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley,
aided by a mid-level wave, sends a band of deformation rainfall
across the area. Highest rain potential will be across southwest
lower Michigan closer to the low`s track with better FGEN. Rain
chances are lower across Central Region as its further away from the
better forcing. Can`t rule out a bit of thunder given 6-7C mid-level
lapse rates but chances are low and would mainly be limited to near
and south of I94 if at all.

Shortwave ridging and an area of high pressure keep Friday dry
across the area. Highs will warm into the low 60s. Our next chance
of rain is Saturday as a shortwave sends a surface low near Lake
Michigan. Could see some diurnal enhancement to shower activity as
the upper-level cold pool moves overhead with steeper mid-level
lapse rates supporting thunder chances. Best rain chances will be
across the southwest half of the CWA between the low track and placement
of the upper-level cold pool.

Predictability then decreases going into the start of next week as
model spread in the upper-level pattern increases. Showers may
continue into the start of next week but low confidence in when they
will end.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across the region with some
severe storms noted. They continue to move east and will mainly
affect BTL/JXN/LAN for the next couple of hours. To the west,
clearing was noted over Lake MI and parts of Wisconsin. We don`t
expect the storms over WI to make it across the lake. Thus, the
pcpn should end at the terminals by 03-04z, leaving generally VFR
conditions through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The main threat for boaters tonight are severe storms with large
hail and strong winds. Additionally, as dewpoints climb into the
lower 60s areas of fog will develop.

Wednesday looks less chaotic as the fog will dissipate and storms
are not expected.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...04/Thomas
AVIATION...04/Thomas
MARINE...04